One-third of global food production at risk for unprecedented climate conditions due to climate change

The majority of food production is based on agricultural practices developed for the stable Holocene climatic conditions, which now are under risk for rapid change due to climate change. Although various studies have assessed the potential changes in climatic conditions and their projected impacts on yields globally, there is no clear understanding on the climatic niche of the current food production. Nor, which areas are under risk of falling outside this niche.

In this study we aim first at defining the novel concept Safe Climatic Space (SCS) by using a combination of three key climatic parameters. SCS is defined here as the climate conditions to which current food production systems (here crop production and livestock production separately) are accustomed to, an analogue to Safe Operating Space (SOS) concepts such as Planetary Boundaries and human climate niche. We use a combination of selected key climatic factors to define the SCS through the Holdridge Life Zone (HLZ) concept. It allows us to first define the SCS based on three climatic factors (annual precipitation, biotemperature and aridity) and to identify which food production areas would stay within it under changed future climate conditions. 

We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of GHG emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% (25-37% with 5th-95th percentile confidence interval) of global food crop production and 34% (26-43%) of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction: 8% (4-10%) for crop production and 4% (2-8%) for livestock production. The most vulnerable areas are the ones at risk of leaving SCS with low resilience to cope with the change, particularly South and Southeast Asia and Africa’s Sudano-Sahelian Zone. 

Our findings reinforce the existing research in suggesting that climate change forces humanity into a new era of reduced validity of past experiences and dramatically increased uncertainties. Future solutions should be concentrated on actions that would both mitigate climate change as well as increase resilience in food systems and societies, increase the food production sustainability that respects key planetary boundaries, adapt to climate change by, for example, crop migration and foster local livelihoods especially in the most critical areas.