Identifying multi-hazard potential impact at the pan-European level: the DRMKC Risk Data Hub methodology

The EU Disaster Risk Management Knowledge Centre (DRMKC)[1] is currently developing a WebGIS-based platform – the Risk Data Hub[2] - aimed at improving access to and sharing of EU-wide risk data, tools, and methodologies in support to policy Directorate-General and national authorities for their Disaster Risk Management. The development of the platform is based on the results of a ‘’Needs and Gaps” analysis performed as part of the preparation of the European Commission Staff Working Document – ‘’Overview of Natural and Man-made Disaster Risks the European Union may face’’ (2014^[3], 2017^[4],2020^[5]).  The overview concerned the 31 summaries of the National Risk Assessment (NRA) submitted to the European Commission by the Participant States of the Union of Civil Protection Mechanism.  For multi-hazard assessments, it concluded that a gap exists between the knowledge and data available in the scientific community and the accessibility and usability by Decision Makers and the Civil Protection community. With the DRMKC’s Risk Data Hub development, we support the integration of multi-hazard risk assessment and mapping into evidence-based decision-making, risk-reduction strategies, and adaptation plans.

Based on this context and utilizing spatial analysis of exposed elements to various hazards across Europe, we present in this study a novel methodological approach for the assessment of multi-hazard potential impact. This methodology is currently implemented on the DRMKC Risk Data Hub WebGIS platform. The methodological approach is based on a hotspot analysis applied to residential area and population exposed to single hazards such as river flood, coastal inundation, earthquakes, landslides, forest fire, and subsidence. Based on different aggregations of the exposure we identify the statistically significant hotspot for the considered hazard exposure. Using Stouffer’s method (Stouffer et al., 1949) for meta-analysis, the statistically significant exposure hotspots for single hazards are combined and subsequently, spatial extension and location of multi-hazards potential impact can be identified.  Consequently, we provide the spatial overview of regions expected to suffer significant multi-hazard potential impacts across Europe at the subnational level. Based on theoretical aspects developed in the literature, we put forward a multi-hazard interaction framework for the sub-national spatial extent across Europe. Finally, a validation of the results against the multi-hazard disaster loss data hosted on the DRMKC Risk Data Hub will be exercised.

The outcome of this study will provide valuable input for the Disaster Risk Management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in the National Risk Assessments preparation.

 

[1] https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

[2] https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/risk-data-hub#/

[3] EUR-Lex - 52014SC0134 - EN - EUR-Lex (europa.eu)

[4] https://ec.europa.eu/echo/sites/echo-site/files/swd_2017_176_overview_of_risks_2.pdf

[5] https://ec.europa.eu/echo/sites/echo-site/files/overview_of_natural_and_man-made_disaster_risks_the_european_union_may_face.pdf

Stouffer, S., DeVinney, L. & Suchman, E. 1949. The  American soldier:  Adjustment during army life, vol. 1.  Princeton University Press Princeton, US.