EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Convection in future winter storms over northern Europe.

Ségolène Berthou1, Elizabeth Kendon1, Malcolm Roberts1, Benoît Vannière2, Danijel Belušic3, Cécile Caillaud4, Andreas Dobler5, Oskar Landgren5, Colin Manning6, and Jesus Vergara-Temprado7
Ségolène Berthou et al.
  • 1Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (
  • 2University of Reading, NCAS, Reading, UK
  • 3Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Norrköping, Sweden
  • 4CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 5Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET Norway), Oslo, Norway
  • 6School of Engineering, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom
  • 7Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland

Met Office convection-permitting 2.2km simulations over a European domain show 10-20% larger increases in winter mean precipitation at the end of the century compared to their 25km convection-parameterised driving model. We identify individual storms with a maximum vorticity tracking algorithm and look at storm characteristics at their time of deepest minimum sea level pressure. We show that the thermodynamical characteristics of future winter storms are getting closer to present-day autumn storms, with future winter storms showing larger values of convective available potential energy and convective inhibition and more intense rainfall in their warm sector. This suggests that embedded convection in the warm conveyor belt is a good candidate to explain the larger future intensification of rainfall per storm in the 2.2km model compared to the convection-parameterised model. Multi-model analysis is underway to identify whether these conclusions hold in other convection-permitting models.

How to cite: Berthou, S., Kendon, E., Roberts, M., Vannière, B., Belušic, D., Caillaud, C., Dobler, A., Landgren, O., Manning, C., and Vergara-Temprado, J.: Convection in future winter storms over northern Europe., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12392,, 2021.

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