SOL40: forty years of simulations under a climate and land use change scenario

Nowadays, one major issue concerns the land-use change due to urban developments that alters the basin response to meteorological events. With less storage capacity and more rapid runoff, urban river basins rise more quickly during storms and have higher peak discharge rates than rural catchments.

An exemplary case of this situation is the city of Milan and its whole territory that extends towards north that collects meteoric precipitation, through the Seveso, Olona and Lambro (SOL) rivers plus a number of minor tributaries for a total drainage surface of about 1300 km².

In order to assess the impact of anthropogenic development on urban catchment scale hydrology, a reanalysis of 40 years of simulations has been carried out with the Curve Number (CN) map based on current land use, and compared to simulations with the CN maps derived using past land use.

A coupled hydro-meteorological system which comprises the physically based rainfall-runoff hydrological model FEST-WB, developed by the Politecnico di Milano and the ERA5-Land hourly dataset from 1981 to present, provided by ECMWF under the framework of Copernicus Climate Change Service Programme has been built.

The study (named as SOL40) exactly analyses 40-years trends of the main meteorological (air temperature, precipitation, etc.) and hydrological variables (soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff) over the SOL area, and try to quantify and separate the impact of land use change from the climate change scenario.