Recent dust variability over South Asia controlled by North Atlantic SST anomalies

Several studies have associated high dust years over South Asia to warming of the central or eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (El Nino conditions) and the resulting weakening of the summer monsoon. Using satellite aerosol data for 2001-2018, we show that there has been a departure from this relation since the second decade of the 21st century with the North Atlantic Ocean emerging as a major driver of interannual variability of dust over South Asia. This change in relation coincides with the end of the global warming hiatus and a shift towards persistent positive phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Positive phase of the NAO induces cold phase of the spring/summer North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole pattern. We show here that high dust activity during 2011-2018 is associated with positive SST anomaly over the mid-latitude North Atlantic and negative SST anomaly over the sub-tropical North Atlantic: the two southern arms of the SST tripole pattern. Interestingly, the relation between NAO and these two southern arms of the SST tripole has undergone changes in recent years, which has impacted the South Asian monsoon. The result is general drying over South Asia and an increase in the strength of the dust-carrying northwesterlies. Simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) shows that SST tripole-like anomalies recorded during 2011-2018 over the North Atlantic can generate mid-latitude wave train that weakens the South Asian monsoon circulation, leads to surface high pressure anomalies and increase in dust emission and transport over northwest India and Pakistan. Most of the increase in the dust load can be attributed to enhanced transport at 800 hPa pressure level during May-June, which can lead to ~40-50% increase in dust concentrations at this level.