Fluvial sediment fluxes response to modern climate change and human activities in the Tibetan Plateau and its margins

Sediment flux in cold environments is a crucial proxy to link glacial, periglacial, and fluvial systems and highly relevant to hydropower operation, water quality, and the riverine carbon cycle. However, the long-term impacts of climate change and multiple human activities on sediment flux changes in cold environments remain insufficiently investigated due to the lack of monitoring and the complexity of the sediment cascade. Here we examine the multi-decadal changes in the in-situ observed fluvial sediment fluxes from two types of basins, namely, pristine basins and disturbed basins, in the Tibetan Plateau and its margins. The results show that the fluvial sediment fluxes in the pristine Tuotuohe headwater have substantially increased over the past three decades (i.e., a net increase of 135% from 1985–1997 to 1998–2017) due to the warming and wetting climate. We also quantify the relative impacts of air temperature and precipitation on the increases in the sediment fluxes with a novel attribution approach and finds that climate warming and intensified glacier-snow-permafrost melting is the primary cause of the increased sediment fluxes in the pristine cold environment (Tuotuohe headwater), with precipitation increase and its associated pluvial processes being the secondary driver. By contrast, the sediment fluxes in the downstream disturbed Jinsha River (southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau) exhibit a net increase of 42% from 1966-1984 to 1985-2010 mainly due to human activities such as deforestation and mineral extraction (contribution of 82%) and secondly because of climate change (contribution of 18%). Then the sediment fluxes dropped by 76% during the period of 2011-2015 because of the operations of six cascade reservoirs since 2010. In an expected warming and wetting climate for the region, we predict that the sediment fluxes in the pristine headwaters of the Tibetan Plateau will continue to increase throughout the 21st century, but the rising sediment fluxes from the Tibetan Plateau would be mostly trapped in its marginal reservoirs.

Overall, this work has provided the sedimentary evidence of modern climate change through robust observational sediment flux data over multiple decades. It demonstrates that sediment fluxes in pristine cold environments are more sensitive to air temperature and thermal-driven geomorphic processes than to precipitation and pluvial-driven processes. It also provides a guide to assess the relative impacts of human activities and climate change on fluvial sediment flux changes and has significant implications for water resources stakeholders to better design and manage the hydropower dams in a changing climate. Such findings may also have implications for other cold environments such as the Arctic, Antarctic, and other high mountainous basins.

Furthermore, this research is under the project of "Water and Sediment Fluxes Response to Climate Change in the Headwater Rivers of Asian Highlands" (supported by the IPCC and the Cuomo Foundation) and the project of "Sediment Load Responses to Climate Change in High Mountain Asia" (supported by the Ministry of Education of Singapore). Part of the results are also published in Li et al., 2018 Geomorphology, Li et al., 2020 Geophysical Research Letters, and Li et al., 2021 Water Resources Research.