EGU21-13217, updated on 05 Mar 2021
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Performances of Urban and Beach Destinations in the Mediterranean

F. Sibel Saygili Araci1,2, O. Cenk Demiroglu3, Aytac Pacal2,4, C. Michael Hall5,6,7, and M. Levent Kurnaz2,8
F. Sibel Saygili Araci et al.
  • 1Institute of Environmental Sciences, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey (
  • 2Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies (iklimBU), Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey
  • 3Department of Geography, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden (
  • 4Graduate Programs in Computational Science and Engineering, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey (
  • 5Department of Management, Marketing and Entrepreneurship, University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand (
  • 6Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu, FI-90014 Oulu, Finland
  • 7School of Business and Economics, Linnaeus University, 351 95 Kalmar, Sweden
  • 8Department of Physics, Bogazici University, Istanbul, Turkey (

Tourism is a major socioeconomic contributor to established and emerging destinations in the Mediterranean region. Recent studies introducing the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) highlight the significance of climate as a factor in sustaining the competitiveness of coastal and urban destinations. The aim of this study is to assess the future HCI performances of urban and beach destinations in the greater Mediterranean region. For this purpose, HCI scores for the reference (1971-2000) and future (2021-2050, 2070-2099) periods were computed with the use of two latest greenhouse gas concentration trajectories, RCP 4.5 and 8.5, based on the Middle East North Africa (MENA) Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domain and data. The outputs were adjusted to a 500 m resolution via the use of lapse rate corrections that extrapolate the climate model topography against a resampled digital elevation model. All periodic results were seasonally aggregated and visualized on a (web) geographical information system (GIS). The web version of the GIS also allowed for a basic climate service where any user can search her/his place of interest overlaid with index ratings. Exposure levels are revealed at the macro scale while sensitivity is discussed through a validation of the climatic outputs against visitation data for one of Mediterranean's leading destinations, Antalya. HCI:Urban results showed that Canary Islands hold suitable conditions for tourism during almost all four seasons and all five periods which will have certain implications when other core Mediterranean competitors lose their relative climatic attractiveness. HCI:Beach results for the summer season showed that Las Canteras, Alicate, Pampelonne, Myrtos, Golden Sands and Edremit all pose Very Good to Excellent conditions without any Humidex risks for the extreme future scenario (2070-2099 RCP8.5).
Much detailed outputs of the study can be viewed from the web service at:


How to cite: Saygili Araci, F. S., Demiroglu, O. C., Pacal, A., Hall, C. M., and Kurnaz, M. L.: Future Holiday Climate Index (HCI) Performances of Urban and Beach Destinations in the Mediterranean, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13217,, 2021.


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