Parameterization dependence of the hydrological cycle in a general circulation model of intermediate complexity

The global hydrological cycle is of crucial importance for life on Earth. Hence, it is a focus of both future climate projections and paleoclimate modeling. The latter typically requires long integrations or large ensembles of simulations, and therefore models of reduced complexity are needed to reduce the computational cost. Here, we study the hydrological cycle of the the Planet Simulator (PlaSim) [1], a general circulation model (GCM) of intermediate complexity, which includes evaporation, precipitation, soil hydrology, and river advection.

Using published parameter configurations for T21 resolution [2, 3], PlaSim strongly underestimates precipitation in the mid-latitudes as well as global atmospheric water compared to ERA5 reanalysis data [4]. However, the tuning of PlaSim has been limited to optimizing atmospheric temperatures and net radiative fluxes so far [3].

Here, we present a different approach by tuning the model’s atmospheric energy balance and water budget simultaneously. We argue for the use of the globally averaged mean absolute error (MAE) for 2 m temperature, net radiation, and evaporation in the objective function. To select relevant model parameters, especially with respect to radiation and the hydrological cycle, we perform a sensitivity analysis and evaluate the feature importance using a Random Forest regressor. An optimal set of parameters is obtained via Bayesian optimization.

Using the optimized set of parameters, the mean absolute error of temperature and cloud cover is reduced on most model levels, and mid-latitude precipitation patterns are improved. In addition to annual zonal-mean patterns, we examine the agreement with the seasonal cycle and discuss regions in which the bias remains considerable, such as the monsoon region over the Pacific.

We discuss the robustness of this tuning with regards to resolution (T21, T31, and T42), and compare the atmosphere-only results to simulations with a mixed-layer ocean. Finally, we provide an outlook on the applicability of our parametrization to climate states other than present-day conditions.

[1] K. Fraedrich et al., Meteorol. Z. 14, 299–304 (2005)
[2] F. Lunkeit et al., Planet Simulator User’s Guide Version 16.0 (University of Hamburg, 2016)
[3] G. Lyu et al., J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 10, 207–222 (2018)
[4] H. Hersbach et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020)