Episodic fluid pressure cycling controls earthquake sequences on subduction megathrusts

A major goal in earthquake physics is to derive a constitutive framework for fault slip that captures the dependence of friction on lithology, sliding velocity, temperature, and pore fluid pressure. Here, we present a newly-developed two-phase flow numerical model — which couples solid rock deformation and pervasive fluid flow — to show how crustal stresses and fluid pressures within subducting megathrust evolve before and during slow slip and fast events. This unified 2D numerical framework couples inertial mechanical deformation and fluid flow by using finite difference methods, marker-in-cell technique, and poro-visco-elasto-plastic rheology. An adaptive time stepping allows the correct resolution of both long- and short-time scales, ranging from years to milliseconds during the dynamic propagation of dynamic rupture.

We investigate how permeability and its spatial distribution control the interseismic coupling along the megathrust interface, the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip, and the nucleation of large earthquakes. While a constant permeability leads to more regular seismic cycles, a depth dependent permeability contributes substantially to the development of two distinct megathrust zones: a shallow, locked seismogenic zone and a deep, narrow aseismic segment characterized by slow-slip events. Furthermore, we show that without requiring any specific friction law, our models reveal that permeability, episodic stress transfer and fluid pressure cycling control the predominant slip mode along the subduction megathrust. Furthermore, we analyze how rate dependent strength and dilatation affect rupture propagation and arrest. Our preliminary results show that fluid-solid poro-visco-elasto-plastic coupling behaves similarly to rate- and state-dependent friction. In this context, fluid pressure plays the role of state parameter whose time evolution is governed by: (i) the short-term elasto-plastic collapse of pores inside faults during the rupture (coseismic self-pressurization of faults) and (ii) the long-term pore-pressure diffusion from the faults into surrounding rocks (post- and interseismic relaxation of fluid pressure). This newly-developed numerical framework contributes to improve our understanding of the physical mechanisms underlying large megathrust earthquakes, and demonstrate that fluid play a key role in controlling the interplay between seismic and aseismic slip.