EGU21-14412
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14412
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

BioDiv-Support: scenario-based decision support tool for policy planning and adaptation to future challenges in biodiversity and ecosystem services 

Camilla Andersson1 and the BioDiv-Support research team*
Camilla Andersson and the BioDiv-Support research team
  • 1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden (firstname.surname@smhi.se)
  • *A full list of authors appears at the end of the abstract

Biodiversity includes any type of living variation, from the ecosystem level to genetic variation within organisms. The greatest threats to biodiversity is climate change, destruction of habitats and other human activities. High-altitude mountain regions are pristine environments, with historically small impacts from air pollution, but at risk of being disproportionately impacted by climate change. We focus on three mountainous regions: the Scandinavian Mountains, the Guadarrama Mountains in Spain, and the Pyrenees in France, Andorra and Spain. We study the impact of drivers of change of biodiversity such as future climate change, increased incidences of wild fires, emissions from new shipping routes in the Arctic as ice sheets are melting, human impacts on land use and management practices (such as reindeer grazing) and air pollution.

We simulate future climate change using WRF and a convective permitting climate model, HARMONIE-Climate, with a spatial resolution of 3km. The high resolution strongly improves the representation of precipitation compared to coarser scale simulations (Lind et al., 2020). We use these simulations to develop future scenarios of air pollution load, using two well established chemistry transport models (MATCH and CHIMERE; Marécal et al., 2015). These climate and air pollution scenarios are subsequently used, together with management scenarios, to develop scenarios for biodiversity and ecosystem services. These scenarios are developed applying a process-based dynamic vegetation and biogeochemistry model, LPJ-GUESS (Smith et al., 2014). 

The scenarios, representing mid-21st century, will be made available through a web-based planning tool, where local stakeholders in each region can explore the project results to understand how scenarios of climate change, air pollution and policy development will affect these ecosystems. Local stakeholders are involved throughout the project, such as reindeer herder communities, regional county boards and national authorities, and in a time of changing climate and a global pandemic we have learned the necessity for flexibility in such interactions.

 

References

Lind et al. 2020., Climate Dynamics 55, 1893-1912.

Marécal et al., 2015. Geosci. Mod. Dev. 8, 2777-2813.

Smith et al. 2014 Biogeosciences 11, 2027-2054.

BioDiv-Support research team:

Camilla Andersson1, Rocio Alonso2, Maurizio Bagnara3, Danijel Belušić1, Victoria Bermejo2, Robert G. Björk4,5, Mats P. Björkman4, Augustin Colette6, Florian Couvidat6, Victoria Gil Alfonso2, Ignacio Gonzalez2, Thomas Hickler3, Jukka-Pekka Jalkanen7, Erik Kjellström1, Fredrik Lagergren8, David Lindstedt1, Fernando Martin2, Paul Miller8, Tinja Olenius1, Håkan Pleijel4, Samuel Prieto2, Antonio Spanu6, Lena Strömbäck1, Gunhild Rosqvist9, Mark Theobald2, Marta G. Vivanco2

How to cite: Andersson, C. and the BioDiv-Support research team: BioDiv-Support: scenario-based decision support tool for policy planning and adaptation to future challenges in biodiversity and ecosystem services , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14412, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14412, 2021.

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