EGU21-14728, updated on 04 Mar 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14728
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Verification of the European subseasonal forecasts of wind speed and temperature

Naveen Goutham1,2, Riwal Plougonven2, Hiba Omrani1, Sylvie Parey1, Peter Tankov3, Alexis Tantet2, and Philippe Drobinski2
Naveen Goutham et al.
  • 1EDF R&D, Palaiseau, France
  • 2Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/IPSL, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, CNRS, Palaiseau, France
  • 3CREST/ENSAE, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau, France

The skill of predicted wind speed at 100 m and temperature at 2 m has been assessed in extended-range forecasts and hindcasts of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, starting from December 2015 to November 2019. The assessment was carried out over Europe grid-point wise and also by considering several spatially averaged country-sized domains, using standard scores such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Score and Anomaly Correlation Coefficient. The (re-)forecasts showed skill over climatology in predicting weekly mean wind speed and temperature well beyond two weeks. Even at a lead time of 6 weeks, the probability of the (re-)forecasts being skillful is greater than 50%, encouraging the use of operational subseasonal forecasts in the decision making value chain. The analysis also exhibited​ significant differences in skill in the predictability of different variables, with temperature being more skillful than wind speed, and for different seasons, with winter allowing more skillful forecasts. The predictability also displayed a clear spatial pattern with forecasts for temperature having more skill for Eastern than for Western Europe, and wind speed forecasts having more skill in Northern than Southern Europe.

How to cite: Goutham, N., Plougonven, R., Omrani, H., Parey, S., Tankov, P., Tantet, A., and Drobinski, P.: Verification of the European subseasonal forecasts of wind speed and temperature, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14728, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14728, 2021.

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