The energy budget of the tropical band in future climate

The atmospheric circulation is expected to change in response to anthropogenic CO₂ emissions. Both theory and model simulations of future climate suggest that the tropical overturning will weaken, with a weaker Hadley Circulation ascent, while the stratification of moist static energy (MSE) will strengthen. These two changes have opposite effects on the energy balance of the deep tropics. In the unperturbed system, the equatorward convergence of the mean flow in the lower troposphere (i.e. at low MSE) is compensated by a divergence in the upper troposphere (i.e. at high MSE), resulting in a net lateral export of MSE out of the region of ascent.

The weakening of the circulation in a future warmer climate would weaken the export of MSE while the strengthening of the stratification -- an increase of the MSE contrast between the upper and lower branches -- would reinforce it. However, previous studies suggest that these two effects do not exactly cancel out. A neglected element in this picture is the primary driver of these changes: due to the long-wave trapping by higher CO₂ concentration, the tropical atmosphere will also receive more energy at the top and bottom (an increased Net Energy Input, NEI).

In this study, we attempt to reconcile changes in the circulation, stratification and NEI under climate change. Specifically, we investigate 1) to which extent the effects of circulation and stratification changes on the MSE budget compensate and 2) if inclusion of the NEI changes brings the MSE budget closer to equilibrium.

To address these questions, we compute the Gross Moist Stability in a series of simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 archive. To test our understanding of the MSE budget, we consider both a future climate scenario (RCP8.5) and the mid-Holocene (6000 A.D). For the future climate, we show that, although there is a rough balance by the circulation and stratification effects, inclusion of the NEI term significantly improves the closure of the MSE budget in the deep tropics. The mid-Holocene case is, however, fundamentally different as both stratification and circulation weaken, reinforcing their effects on the MSE export. In this case, inclusion of the NEI term is critical to establish the MSE balance of the deep tropics.

Both cases underline that a three-term balance (between changes in circulation, MSE stratification and NEI) provides a robust description of the deep tropics MSE budget under climate change.