EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Changes in cyclone circulation and storm tracks under different future climate scenarios

Matthew Priestley and Jennifer Catto
Matthew Priestley and Jennifer Catto
  • University of Exeter, University of Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (

Extratropical cyclones have the potential to cause large damages across the mid-latitudes. Future climate change is projected to have a large impact on the location of the storm tracks, and the frequency of these cyclones, however the sign and magnitude of these responses has been uncertain for regions near the end of the storm tracks in previous coupled and idealized modelling studies.


Through the use of a Lagrangian cyclone tracking method we quantify changes in the storm tracks for both summer and winter seasons in both hemispheres for four future climate scenarios using a number of CMIP6 models. A cyclone compositing technique is employed to identify changes in cyclone circulation for the strongest cyclones in the lower, middle, and upper troposphere. We identify an intensification of the cyclone circulation in all seasons, apart from NH summer, where a weakening is detected. Cyclone size is also projected to increase, with a widening of the pressure and wind fields.


These results have significant implications from a socio-economic perspective. Despite a projected decrease in cyclone numbers, an increase in severity may lead to more drastic windstorms and larger impacts across heavily populated regions of the mid-latitudes.

How to cite: Priestley, M. and Catto, J.: Changes in cyclone circulation and storm tracks under different future climate scenarios, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15423,, 2021.

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