Compound disaster scenarios for risk management assessment in CAREC countries

A compound disaster defines a situation with adverse consequences resulting from different, but related, disaster‐agents (ICLA 1996). These low probability extreme events can correspond to events with multiple concurrent or consecutive drivers, resulting in major financial or physical loss (Sadegh et al., 2018). In this study, disaster scenarios involving natural hazards and pandemics were developed to assess the risk and implications of a compound event to member countries of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) area.

A partnership of 11 countries (Afghanistan, Azerbaijan, China (Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region; Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region), Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) across Asia, the CAREC countries work together to promote sustainable development, economic growth and reduce poverty. High exposure to flooding and earthquake coupled with low insurance penetration means natural catastrophes are significantly material to the public sector balance sheet. This collaborative study involving multiple hazard modelling agencies assesses the potential impact of natural perils concurrent to pandemic/epidemic outbreaks.

The compound events developed represent Realistic Disaster Scenarios (RDS) for the specific areas they represent and are based on plausible low-probability, high-consequence events such as the 2015 floods in Tbilisi and the 1905 Bolnai earthquake in Mongolia. The impact of the natural events is then further compounded by modelled infectious disease outbreaks for each given scenario.

High resolution fluvial and pluvial flood hazard scenario footprints (30m x 30m), earthquake hazard intensity maps and gridded population data (Worldpop) are modelled alongside outbreaks including respiratory (including flu), Nipah and Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, to assess the compounded impact. The humanitarian and financial loss potential of these events are then presented in the context of alternative disaster risk financing measures and adaptation strategies aimed at increased resilience.

 

ICLA (1996), International Conference on Local Authorities Confronting Disasters and Emergencies, Background Documents, Amsterdam.

Sadegh, M., Moftakhari, H., Gupta, H. V., Ragno, E., Mazdiyasni, O., Sanders, B., ... & AghaKouchak, A. (2018). Multihazard scenarios for analysis of compound extreme events. Geophysical Research Letters, 45(11), 5470-5480.