EGU21-15745, updated on 10 Jan 2024
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Probabilistic Streamflow forecast for Narmada River Basin

Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
Urmin Vegad and Vimal Mishra
  • Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, Civil Engineering, Gandhinagar, India

Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a widely used method in forecasting streamflow, particularly for extremely low or high flows. However, the incorporation of reservoir operations in using ensemble streamflow prediction has not been investigated till yet. We calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model for daily streamflow for Narmada river basin at four stations (Sandia, Handia, Mandleshwar and Garudeshwar) considering the effect of four reservoirs (Bargi, Tawa, Indira Sagar and Sardar Sarovar). The model is well-calibrated for the selected river basin (R2>0.55) at all locations. Further, routing of streamflow is done considering the reservoir storage dynamics and operating rules. Input data for ensemble prediction is taken from all 16 members of the Extended Range Forecast System (ERFS) developed by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) and implemented by India Meteorological Department (IMD). Post-processing of the results gave us probabilities of uncertainties associated with streamflow prediction using ERFS members. This study provides key information in predictions of streamflow by incorporating the reservoirs based on the ERFS ensemble members, which can be used to effectively mitigate life and property losses associated with extreme flows in rivers.

How to cite: Vegad, U. and Mishra, V.: Probabilistic Streamflow forecast for Narmada River Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15745,, 2021.