Land-use change effects on biodiversity through mechanistic simulations: A case study with South-Asian mammals

Land-use change remains the main driver of biodiversity loss, and fragmentation and habitat loss are expected to lead to further population declines and species losses . We apply a recently developed R package for a spatially-explicit mechanistic simulation model (RangeShiftR), which incorporates habitat suitability, demographic as well as dispersal processes to understand temporal effects of land-use change (Land-use harmonization scenarios for the 1900-2100 period) on abundance and richness of mammalian species in South-Asia. We then compare land-use scenarios with and without protected areas to understand if current spatial conservation strategies are able to sustain viable populations independently of the land-use scenarios followed. Our approach is innovative in assessing how land-use scenarios can influence animal populations through underlying ecological processes.