EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Benefits of stochastic parameterizations in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts 

Judith Berner
Judith Berner
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, USA

Recently, there has been much interest in issuing subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts, although their skill is often debated. In addition to large systematic errors, ensemble systems are often overconfident, i.e. have incorrect information about the uncertainty of a particular forecast. Stochastic parameterization schemes are used routinely to remedy the problem of overconfidence, but also have the potential to reduce systematic model errors. 

Here, we study the impact of adding a stochastic parameterization scheme in coupled simulations with the climate model CESM.  Physical processes associated with S2S-predictability, like the Madden-Julian  Oscillation (MJO) and Northern Hemispheric blocking are analyzed. In the simulations with a stochastic parameterization scheme, the northward propagation of the MJO is captured better, leading to an improved MJO lifecycle. The impact on other atmospheric fields like precipitation and winds will be discussed. 

How to cite: Berner, J.: Benefits of stochastic parameterizations in subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16321,, 2021.


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