Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models
- Department of Hungarian Geography, Faculty of Geography, Babes-Bolyai University, 400006 Clinicilor 5-7, Cluj-Napoca, Romania (blanka.bartok@ubbcluj.ro)
As solar energy share is showing a significant growth in the European electricity generation system, assessments regarding long-term variation of this variable related to climate change are becoming more and more relevant for this sector. Several studies analysed the impact of climate change on the solar energy sector in Europe (Jerez et al, 2015) finding light impact (-14%; +2%) in terms of mean surface solar radiation. The present study focuses on extreme values, namely on the distribution of low surface solar radiation (overcast situation) and high surface solar radiation (clear sky situation), since the frequencies of these situations have high impact on electricity generation.
The study considers 11 high-resolution (0.11 deg) bias-corrected climate projections from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble with 5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) downscaled by 6 Regional Climate Models (RCMs).
Changes in extreme surface solar radiation frequencies show different regional patterns over Europe.
The study also includes a case study determining the changes in solar power generation induced by the extreme situations.
Jerez et al (2015): The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe, Nature Communications 6(1):10014, 10.1038/ncomms10014
How to cite: Bartok, B.: Changes in extreme surface solar radiation in EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16536, 2021.
