EGU21-2330
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2330
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics

David J. Peres1, Alfonso Senatore2, Paola Nanni3, Antonino Cancelliere4, Giuseppe Mendicino5, and Brunella Bonaccorso6
David J. Peres et al.
  • 1University of Catania, Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Catania, Italy (djperes@dica.unict.it)
  • 2Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Arcavacata di Rende (CS), 87036, Italy
  • 3University of Catania, Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Catania, Italy
  • 4University of Catania, Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Catania, Italy
  • 5Department of Environmental Engineering, University of Calabria, Arcavacata di Rende (CS), 87036, Italy
  • 6Department of Engineering, University of Messina, St Agata, Messina, 98166, Italy

Regional climate models (RCMs) are commonly used for assessing, at proper spatial resolutions, future impacts of climate change on hydrological events. In this study, we propose a statistical methodological framework to assess the quality of the EURO-CORDEX RCMs concerning their ability to simulate historic observed climate (temperature and precipitation). We specifically focus on the models’ performance in reproducing drought characteristics (duration, accumulated deficit, intensity, and return period) determined by the theory of runs at seasonal and annual timescales, by comparison with high-density and high-quality ground-based observational datasets. In particular, the proposed methodology is applied to the Sicily and Calabria regions (Southern Italy), where long historical precipitation and temperature series were recorded by the ground-based monitoring networks operated by the former Regional Hydrographic Offices. The density of the measurements is considerably greater than observational gridded datasets available at the European level, such as E-OBS or CRU-TS. Results show that among the models based on the combination of the HadGEM2 global circulation model (GCM) with the CLM-Community RCMs are the most skillful in reproducing precipitation and temperature variability as well as drought characteristics. Nevertheless, the ranking of the models may slightly change depending on the specific variable analysed, as well as the temporal and spatial scale of interest. From this point of view, the proposed methodology highlights the skills and weaknesses of the different configurations, aiding on the selection of the most suitable climate model for assessing climate change impacts on drought processes and the underlying variables.

How to cite: Peres, D. J., Senatore, A., Nanni, P., Cancelliere, A., Mendicino, G., and Bonaccorso, B.: A statistical framework for evaluating EURO-CORDEX simulations and derived drought characteristics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2330, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2330, 2021.

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