EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Detecting early warning signal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase  transition using complex network analysis 

Zhenghui Lu1, Naiming Yuan2, Qing Yang1, Zhuguo Ma1,3, and Juergen Kurths4,5
Zhenghui Lu et al.
  • 1Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia (RCE-TEA), Beijing, China (
  • 2School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, China
  • 3University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China
  • 4Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany
  • 5Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Obtaining an efficient prediction of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase transition is a worldwide challenge. Here, we employed the climate network analysis to uncover early warning signals prior to a PDO phase transition. This way an examination of cooperative behavior in the PDO region revealed an enhanced signal that propagated from the western Pacific to the northwest coast of North America. The detection of this signal corresponds very well to the time when the upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial northwestern tropical Pacific reaches a threshold, in which case a PDO phase transition may be expected with the arising of the next El Niño/La Niña event. The objectively detected early warning signal successfully forewarned all the six PDO phase transitions from the 1890s to 2000s, and also underpinned the possible PDO phase transition around 2015, which may be triggered by the strong El Niño event in 2015-2016.

How to cite: Lu, Z., Yuan, N., Yang, Q., Ma, Z., and Kurths, J.: Detecting early warning signal of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation phase  transition using complex network analysis , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2541,, 2021.

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