EGU21-2856, updated on 12 Jan 2022
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2856
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Low-flow forecasting in France: update on the latest developments of the PREMHYCE operational forecast platform

François Bourgin1, François Tilmant1, Anne-Lise Véron1, François Besson2, Didier François3, Matthieu Le Lay4, Pierre Nicolle5, Charles Perrin1, Fabienne Rousset2, Dominique Thiéry6, Jean-Marie Willemet2, Claire Magand7, and Mathilde Morel8
François Bourgin et al.
  • 1Université Paris-Saclay, INRAE, UR HYCAR, Antony, France
  • 2Météo-France, Direction of Climatology, Toulouse, France
  • 3Lorraine University, LOTERR, Metz, France
  • 4EDF-DTG, Grenoble, France
  • 5GERS-LEE, Univ Gustave Eiffel, IFSTTAR, Bouguenais, France
  • 6BRGM, Orléans, France
  • 7French Office for Biodiversity (OFB), Vincennes, France
  • 8Ministry for the Ecological Transition, Water and biodiversity direction, France

Low-flow forecasting can help to improve water management at places where a number of uses can be affected by diminishing water supply from rivers. Several French institutes (INRAE, BRGM, EDF, Lorraine University and Météo-France) have been collaborating to set up an operational platform, called PREMHYCE, for low-flow forecasting at the national scale, in cooperation with operational services. PREMHYCE includes five hydrological models and low-flow forecasts can be issued up to 90 days ahead for more than 800 basins. Several input scenarios are considered: ECMWF 14-days ensemble forecasts, ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) using historical climatic data, and a no precipitation scenario. Outputs from the different hydrological models are combined into a multi-model approach to improve robustness of the forecasts. The tool provides text files and graphical representation of forecasted low-flows, as well as key low-flow indicators, such as the probabilities of being under low-flow thresholds provided by operational services. The presentation will show the main characteristics of this operational forecast platform, its latest developments and the results on the recent low-flow periods.

How to cite: Bourgin, F., Tilmant, F., Véron, A.-L., Besson, F., François, D., Le Lay, M., Nicolle, P., Perrin, C., Rousset, F., Thiéry, D., Willemet, J.-M., Magand, C., and Morel, M.: Low-flow forecasting in France: update on the latest developments of the PREMHYCE operational forecast platform, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2856, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2856, 2021.

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