EGU21-3190, updated on 10 May 2023
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños

Iñigo Gómara1,2, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca1,2, Elsa Mohino1, Teresa Losada1, Irene Polo1, and Marta Coll3,4
Iñigo Gómara et al.
  • 1Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Depto. Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica, Madrid, Spain (
  • 2Instituto de Geociencias (IGEO), UCM-CSIC, 28040 Madrid, Spain
  • 3Institut de Ciències del Mar (ICM‐CSIC), 08003 Barcelona, Spain
  • 4Ecopath International Initiative (EII) Research Association, 08003 Barcelona, Spain

Tropical Pacific upwelling-dependent ecosystems are the most productive and variable worldwide, mainly due to the influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO can be forecasted seasons ahead thanks to assorted climate precursors (local-Pacific processes, pantropical interactions). However, owing to observational data scarcity and bias-related issues in earth system models, little is known about the importance of these precursors for marine ecosystem prediction. With recently released reanalysis-nudged global marine ecosystem simulations, these constraints can be sidestepped, allowing full examination of tropical Pacific ecosystem predictability. By complementing historical fishing records with marine ecosystem model data, we show herein that equatorial Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) constitute a superlative predictability source for tropical Pacific marine yields, which can be forecasted over large-scale areas up to 2 years in advance. A detailed physical-biological mechanism is proposed whereby Atlantic SSTs modulate upwelling of nutrient-rich waters in the tropical Pacific, leading to a bottom-up propagation of the climate-related signal across the marine food web. Our results represent historical and near-future climate conditions and provide a useful springboard for implementing a marine ecosystem prediction system in the tropical Pacific.

How to cite: Gómara, I., Rodríguez-Fonseca, B., Mohino, E., Losada, T., Polo, I., and Coll, M.: Skillful prediction of tropical Pacific fisheries provided by Atlantic Niños, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3190,, 2021.

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