Efficient carbon drawdown allows for a high future carbon uptake in the North Atlantic

As one of the major carbon sinks in the global ocean, the North Atlantic is a key player in mediating and ameliorating the ongoing global warming. Projections of the North Atlantic carbon sink in a high-CO₂ future vary greatly among models, with some showing that a slowdown in carbon uptake has already begun and others predicting that this slowdown will not occur until nearly 2100.

Discrepancies among models largely originate because of differences in the efficiency of the high-latitude transport of carbon from the surface to the deep ocean. This transport occurs through biological production, deep convection and subsequent transport via the deep western boundary current. For an ensemble of 11 CMIP5-models, we studied the efficiency of this transport and identified two indicators of contemporary model behavior that are highly correlated with a model´s projected future carbon-uptake. The first indicator is the high latitude summer pCO₂^sea-anomaly of a model, which is tightly linked to winter mixing and nutrient supply, but also to deep convection. The second indicator is the fraction of the anthropogenic carbon-inventory stored below 1000-m depth, indicating how efficient carbon is transported into the deep ocean. By comparing to the observational database, these indicators allow us to better constrain the model ensemble, and demonstrate that the models with more efficient surface to deep transport are best aligned with current observations. These models also show the largest future North Atlantic carbon uptake, which we then conclude is the more plausible future evolution. We further study if the high correlations between our contemporary indicators and a model´s future North Atlantic carbon uptake is also upheld for the next model generation, CMIP6. We hypothesize that this is the case and that our indicators can not only help us to constrain the CMIP6 model ensemble but also inform us about progress made between CMIP5 and CMIP6 in terms of North Atlantic carbon uptake, winter mixing, nutrient supply, deep convection and transport of carbon into the deep ocean.