Quantitative estimation on contribution of climate changes and watershed characteristic changes to decreasing streamflow in the Huangshui Basin, China

In the past 60 years, climate changes and underlying surface of the watershed have affected the structure and characteristics of water resources to a different degree It is of great significance to investigate main drivers of streamflow change for development, utilization and planning management of water resources in river basins. In this study, the Huangshui Basin, a typical tributary of the upper Yellow River, is used as the research area. Based on the Budyko hypothesis, streamflow and meteorological data from 1958-2017 are used to quantitatively assess the relative contributions of changes in climate and watershed characteristic to streamflow change in research area. The results show that: the streamflow of Huangshui Basin shows an insignificant decreasing trend; the sensitivity coefficients of streamflow to precipitation, potential evapotranspiration and watershed characteristic parameter are 0.5502, -0.1055, and 183.2007, respectively. That is, an increase in precipitation by 1 unit will induce an increase of 0.5502 units in streamflow, and an increase in potential evapotranspiration by 1 unit will induce a decrease of 0.1055 units in streamflow, and an increase in the watershed characteristic parameter by 1 unit will induce a decrease of 183.2007 units in streamflow. Compared with the reference period (1958-1993), the streamflow decreased by 20.48mm (13.59%) during the change period (1994-2017), which can be attribution to watershed characteristic changes (accounting for 73.64%) and climate change (accounting for 24.48%). Watershed characteristic changes exert a dominant influence upon the reduction of streamflow in the Huangshui Basin.