Prediction of future development of soil water erosion in small agricultural chatchment

It is well known that the impact of climate change affects various areas such as hydroclimatical factors which can cause increased occurrence of heavy precipitation events, ice melting, rising temperature or sea-level as a consequence of the global warming. It is assumed that the average surface temperature on Earth has increased by more than 1° Celsius since 1880. Climate change of the Earth has changed naturally over the past 650.000 years as a result of external factors that impact the climate. Despite of this fact, over the last 100 years is global warming strongly accelerated by different kind of human activities. One of those activities represents inappropriate land use management which is directly connected with soil degradation and soil erosion as the major threat of global soil degradation. The study presents the assessment of the future development of soil water erosion processes in one small agricultural catchment located in the Slovak Republic. The calculations were done based on the long-term simulation using the event and physically-based soil erosion model and one-hour rainfall events. The model used was calibrated and validated in the previous studies. The period time analysed covers 80 years, i.e., from 2020 until 2100. From the period the years where the most intensive rainfall events have occurred were chosen. The rainfall events were determined by climate CLM model. In order to compare the suitability of land-use management, three scenarios were created. They include three different types of land cover, i.e., agricultural crops (wheat and corn) and grassland. The modelled results show development of soil erosion in the future period up to 2100 together with the comparison of land use management in the area under research. The study predicts the future development of soil water erosion where the short term extreme rainfall events play key element as a crucial factor in the soil erosion assessment processes.