Analysis of the eastern Adriatic sea-level extremes

The Adriatic Sea is known to be under a high flooding risk due to both storm surges and meteorological tsunamis, with the latter defined as short-period sea-level oscillations alike to tsunamis but generated by atmospheric processes. In June 2017, a tide-gauge station with a 1-min sampling resolution has been installed at Stari Grad (middle Adriatic Sea), the well-known meteotsunami hot-spot, which is, also, often hit by storm surges. 

Three years of corresponding sea-level measurements were analyzed, and 10 strongest episodes of each of the following extreme types were extracted from the residual series: (1) positive long-period (T > 210 min) extremes; (2) negative long-period (T > 210 min) extremes; (3) short-period (T < 210) extremes. Long-period extremes were defined as situations during which sea level surpasses (is lower than) 99.7 (i.e. 2) percentile of sea level height, and short-period extremes as situations during which variance of short-period sea-level oscillations is higher than 99.4 percentile of total variance[J1]  of short-period series. A strong seasonal signal was detected for all extremes, with most of the positive long-period extremes appearing during November to February, and most of the negative long-period extremes during January to February. As for the short-period extremes, these appear evenly throughout the year, but strongest events seem to appear during May to July.

All events were associated to characteristic atmospheric situations, using both local measurements of the atmospheric variables, and ERA5 Reanalysis dataset. It was shown that positive low-pass extremes commonly appear during presence of low pressure over the Adriatic associated with strong SE winds (“sirocco”), and negative low-pass extremes are associated to the high atmospheric pressure over the area associated with either strong NE winds (“bora”), or no winds at all. On the other hand, high-pass sea level extremes are noticed during two distinct types of atmospheric situations corresponding to both “bad” (low pressure, strong SE wind) and “nice” (high pressure, no wind) weather.

It is particularly interesting that short-period extremes, of which strongest are meteotsunamis, are occasionally coincident with positive long-period extremes contributing with up to 50 percent to total sea level height – thus implying existence of a double danger phenomena (meteotsunami + storm surge).