EGU21-5787, updated on 10 Jun 2021
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Future changes in Beijing haze events under different shared socioeconomic pathways

Liang Guo1, Laura Wilcox1, Massimo Bollasina2, Steven Turnock3, Marianne Lund4, and Lixia Zhang5
Liang Guo et al.
  • 1University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Reading, United Kingdom of Great Britain – England, Scotland, Wales (
  • 2University of Edinburgh, UK
  • 3Met Office, UK
  • 4Center for International Climate Research, Norway
  • 5IAP, China

The occurrence of severe haze events remains a serious problem in Beijing. Previous studies suggested that the frequency of weather patterns conducive to haze may increase with global warming. The new Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) cover a wide range of uncertainties in aerosol and greenhouse gases emissions. Global and Chinese aerosol emissions are projected to decrease in most SSPs, while increases in greenhouse gases and global warming will continue for the rest of the century. The future, therefore, remains unclear.

We quantified the air pollution over Beijing and associated weather patterns using multiple indices calculated from the SSPs

We show that the occurrence of weather patterns conducive to the formation of haze significantly increases by the end of the century due to increases in greenhouse gases. Aerosol reductions also cause an increase in their occurrence, but reduce the severity of haze, and overall reducing aerosol emissions will be beneficial.

How to cite: Guo, L., Wilcox, L., Bollasina, M., Turnock, S., Lund, M., and Zhang, L.: Future changes in Beijing haze events under different shared socioeconomic pathways, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5787,, 2021.


Display file