CME arrival time predictions with a deformable front

We present the first results of our newly developed CME arrival prediction model, which allows the CME front to deform and adapt to the changing solar wind conditions. Our model is based on ELEvoHI and makes use of the WSA/HUX (Wang-Sheeley-Arge/Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation) model combination, which computes large-scale ambient solar wind conditions in the interplanetary space. With an estimate of the solar wind speed and density, we are able to account for the drag exerted on different parts of the CME front. Initially, our model relies on heliospheric imager observations to confine an elliptical CME front and to obtain an initial speed and drag parameter for the CME. After a certain distance, each point of the CME front is propagating based on the conditions in the heliosphere. In this case study, we compare our results to previous arrival time predictions using ELEvoHI with a rigid CME front. We find that the actual arrival time at Earth and the arrival time predicted by the new model are in very good agreement.