An Alternative Machine Learning-Based Methodology for H-SAF H35 Fractional Snow Cover Product

The fractional snow cover (FSC) product H35 is a daily operational product based on multi-channel analysis of AVHRR onboard to NOAA and MetOp satellites. H35 is supplied by the European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (HSAF). The “traditional” H35 FSC product is generated at pixel resolution by exploiting the brightness intensity, which is the convolution of the snow signal and the fraction of snow within the pixel and the sampling is carried out at 1-km intervals. The product for flat/forested regions is generated by Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) and the product for mountainous areas is generated by Turkish State Meteorological Service (TSMS). Both products, thereafter, are merged at FMI. This presentation aims to represent the latest findings of our efforts in developing an “alternative” H35 FSC product for the mountainous part by using two data-driven machine learning methodologies, namely, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) and random forests (RFs). In total, 332 Sentinel 2 images over Alps, Tatra Mountains and Turkey acquired between November 2018 and April 2019 are used in order to generate the necessary reference FSC maps for the training of the MARS and RF models. AVHRR bands 1-5, NDSI and NDVI are used as predictor variables. Binary classified Sentinel 2 snow maps, ERA5 snow depth and MODIS MOD10A1 NDSI data are employed in the validation of the models. The results show that both MARS- and RF-based H35 product are i) in good agreement with reference FSC maps (as indicated by low RMSE and relatively high R values) and ii) able to capture the spatial variability of the snow extend. However, MARS-based H35 is preferred for an operational FSC product generation due to the high computational cost required in RF model.