EGU21-6043, updated on 29 Apr 2021
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6043
EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the  Siliana catchment in Tunisia

Imen EL Ghoul1,2, Haykel Sellami2, Kaoutar Mounir4, Slaheddine Khlifi1, and Marnik Vanclooster3
Imen EL Ghoul et al.
  • 1UR-Gestion Durable des Ressources en Eau et en Sol, Ecole Supérieure des Ingénieurs de Medjez El Bab, Université de Jendouba,Tunisia (imenelghoul91@gmail.com),(slaheddinekhlifi@gmail.com)
  • 2Centre for water Research and Technology Laboratory of Georesources, Tunisia (haysellami@yahoo.fr)
  • 3Université catholique de Louvain, Earth and Life Institute (ELI), Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium (marnik.vanclooster@uclouvain.be)
  • 4University François Rabelais of Tours, UMR CNRS 7324 Citeres, 33 allée Ferdinard de Lesseps, B.P. 60449, 37204 Tours cedex 3, France. University Sidi Mohamed Ben Abdallah of Fez, CED ST LGE2D, Fez, Morocco.kaoutar.mounir@etu.univ-tours.fr

Land use/ Land cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this study, combined effects of changes in climate and LULC on hydrological processes are investigated by comparing baseline period (2000-2013) to future conditions (2030-2070) using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model in the Siliana catchment in Tunisia.

The LULC future scenarios are modelled using the Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov chain while climate change scenarios were derived from the regional climate models (RCMs) in the coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX-Europe). The (CDF) matching approach with observed precipitation and temperature records is used for bias correction. Subsequently, bias corrected climate projections and LULC future scenarios are fed in the SWAT model to assess changes in catchment hydrology based on a set of hydrological indicators (e.g. monthly discharge and total water availability). Prediction uncertainty related to changes in LULC, climate conditions and SWAT model parameter are also assessed.

A significant decrease in pasture and an increase in irrigated lands will likely shape the future LULC in comparison to the baseline conditions. However, these changes will be combined by a warmer and drier climate and hydrological conditions in the future in the Siliana catchment. By considering only changes in LULC in the reference period, there was a slight reduction in the surface runoff and total available water in the catchment. 

KEYWORDS: hydrologic response; land use change; climate change; uncertainty; Mediterranean catchment; SWAT model; CA-Markov

How to cite: EL Ghoul, I., Sellami, H., Mounir, K., Khlifi, S., and Vanclooster, M.: Hydrological response of LULC and climate change in Mediterranean basin: application to the  Siliana catchment in Tunisia, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6043, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6043, 2021.

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