Modeling of TEC over the Iberian Peninsula using PCA decomposition and multiple linear regression on space weather parameters
- University of Coimbra, III, CITEUC - Centro de Investigação da terra e do Espaço da Universidade de Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal (annamorozovauc@gmail.com)
The total electron content (TEC) over the Iberian Peninsula was modeled using a three-step procedure. At the 1st step the TEC series is decomposed using the principal component analysis (PCA) into several daily modes. Then, the amplitudes of those daily modes is fitted by a multiple linear regression model (MRM) using several types of space weather parameters as regressors. Finally, the TEC series is reconstructed using the PCA daily modes and MRM fitted amplitudes.
The advantage of such approach is that seasonal variations of the TEC daily modes are automatically extracted by PCA. As space weather parameters we considered proxies for the solar UV and XR fluxes, number of the solar flares, parameters of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field, and geomagnetic indices. Different time lags and combinations of the regressors are tested.
The possibility to use such TEC models for forecasting was tested. Also, a possibility to use neural networks (NN) instead of MRM is studied.
How to cite: Morozova, A., Barlyaeva, T., and Barata, T.: Modeling of TEC over the Iberian Peninsula using PCA decomposition and multiple linear regression on space weather parameters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7393, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7393, 2021.
