A study about the linearity of trends between extreme and mean temperatures in Argentina

Small variations in the mean state of the atmosphere can cause large changes in the frequency of extreme events. In order to deepen and extend previous results in time, in this work we analyzed the linear relationship between extreme and mean temperature (Τ) on a climate change scale in Argentina. Two monthly extreme indices, cold nights (TN10) and warm days (TX90), were calculated based on the quality-controlled daily minimum and maximum temperature data provided by the Argentine National Meteorological Service from 58 conventional weather stations located over Argentina in the 1977–2017 period. Subsequently, we evaluated the relationship between the linear trends of extremes and mean temperature on a seasonal basis (JFM, AMJ, JAS, and OND). Student's T-test was performed to analyze their statistical significance at 5%. Firstly, positive (negative) and significant linear regressions were found between TX90 (TN10) trends and mean temperature trends for the four studied seasons. Therefore, an increase in the Τ-trend maintains a linear relationship with significant increase (decrease) of warm days (cold nights). Moreover, we found that JFM was the one with the highest coefficient of determination (0.602 for hot extremes and 0.511 for cold extremes), implying that 60.2% (51.1%) of the TX90 (TN10) trend could be explained as a function of the Τ-trend by a linear regression. In addition, in the JFM (OND) quarter, the TX90 index increased by 7.02 (6.02) % of days each with a 1 ºC increase in the mean temperature. Likewise, the TN10 index decreased by 4.94 (and 4.99) % of days from a 1ºC increase in the mean temperature for the JFM (AMJ) quarter. Finally, it is worthwhile to highlight the uneven behavior between hot and cold extremes and the mean temperature. Specifically, it was observed that the slopes of the linear regression calculated for the TX90 index and Τ presented a higher absolute value than those registered for the TN10 index and Τ. Therefore, a change in the mean temperature affects hot extremes to a greater extent than cold ones in Argentina.