Understanding uses and implications of water forecasting in multisectoral research

The increasing availability and reliability of river flow forecasts has coincided with forecast-guided operating arrangements that seek to enhance the benefits of water reservoir operations. In the western United States, where winter snowpack depth indicates spring and summer flow, water release decisions may be informed with estimates of incoming water out to weeks and months ahead. Understanding how such medium to long-range forecasts affect the spatial and temporal distribution of water availability at across large basins and regions is necessary to accurately drive and constrain expansive, water-dependent system simulations, such grid-scale electrical power dispatch. This presentation will encompass recent research activities aimed at characterizing the use of forecasts and simulating their effects in large scale hydrological and water management models. Results show that forecasts must be included in reservoir models to accurately reproduce release decisions. Implementing these operations in large-scale hydrological models remains a significant challenge to be tackled by the community. Problems of simulated streamflow bias and lack of accurate data describing water withdrawal and consumption means must be addressed to harness realistic, forecast-based operations in large-scale water management models.