EGU General Assembly 2021
© Author(s) 2023. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

ENSO asymmetry: the search for extreme El Niño events in HadGEM

Sarah Ineson, Nick Dunstone, Adam Scaife, and Kuniko Yamazaki
Sarah Ineson et al.
  • Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom of Great Britain (

Analysis of a long control run of the Hadley Centre coupled model shows that ENSO asymmetry is weak. We use the same model in our seasonal and decadal prediction systems, and while on seasonal timescales the initialised prediction realistically captures the amplitude of extreme El Niño events, on longer timescales the predictions revert to the control behaviour i.e. there are no very large El Niño events. This may impact on our ability evaluate the risk of extreme regional events. Here we show results exploring asymmetry in both the control model, and also from a number of perturbed parameter experiments, each a plausible realisation of the control.

How to cite: Ineson, S., Dunstone, N., Scaife, A., and Yamazaki, K.: ENSO asymmetry: the search for extreme El Niño events in HadGEM, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9593,, 2021.


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