Changes in land use in the last two centuries in the Po lowlands (northern Italy)

Changes in land use represent, after fossil-fuel combustion, the greatest cause of greenhouse-gases emission into the atmosphere. Coastal wetlands, also referred as coastal blue carbon ecosystems (e.g. salt marshes, mangrove forests, seagrass meadows, swamps), represent one of the most powerful C sinks among the Earth’s ecosystems, being capable to sequester organic carbon (OC) at rates ca. 30-50 times higher than terrestrial forests. Historically, land reclamation for agriculture, farming and urban expansion, severely impacted coastal wetlands, causing their loss and degradation. Wetlands drainage lead to the oxidation of organic matter previously stored under anaerobic conditions and the release of CO₂ into the atmosphere. Only recently the critical role of blue carbon ecosystems in climate-change mitigation has been recognised, highlighting the importance of protecting and studying these precious environments.

In this work, changes in land use in the last two centuries are reconstructed through comparison with historical maps. At the beginning of the 19^th century Napoleon Bonaparte requested the development of high-quality maps of occupied territories. Among these, the so-called ‘Carta del Ferrarese’ (CdF), completed between 1812 and 1814, is composed of 38 sheets and represents, to a scale of 1:15.000, 240.000 hectares of the Po lowlands, roughly corresponding to the present-day Ferrara district. The CdF, archived at the Kriegsarchiv in Vienna, is an extraordinary example among historical maps for its high quality and accuracy, which constitute a two-centuries-old reliable paleo-landscape picture.

Within the Historical Land Use Change research project, leaded by the Emilia-Romagna Statistical and GIS Service, the CdF was scanned, accurately georeferenced and orthorectified, showing a surprising generalized match with recent maps. More than 31.000 polygons were digitized in a GIS environment and interpreted on the basis of the European Corine Land Cover codes, properly modified for the land uses at the time.

Comparison with the recent land use analysis, carried out in 2014, highlights changes in land use, mainly related to land reclamation. Salt marshes and swamps, originally extended for 100.000 hectares, were reduced of about 85%, starting from 1861. Major phases of land reclamation occurred in 1870s and 1960s. Geochemical analyses on shallow samples (depth < 50 cm), depict OC content of artificially drained soils < 5% of the total volume. Soil texture testifies to the almost complete mineralization of OC after reclamation. Only recently drained soils show higher OC content, in the range of 10-15%.