Comparing slope stability analysis using limit equilibrium and finite elements simulations of deep-seated landslides along the western margin of the Main Ethiopian Rift

Landslides and ground failures are among the common geo-environmental hazards in many of the tectonically active hilly and mountainous terrains of Ethiopia, such as in the western margin of the Main Ethiopian Rift in Debre Sina area. Besides the geological preconditioning, bi-modal monsoon and seismic events in the tectonically highly active region are usually suspected triggers. In order to minimize the damage caused by the slope failure events, a detailed investigation of landslide-prone areas using numerical modelling plays a crucial role. The aim of this study is to assess the stability of slopes, to understand the relevant failure mechanisms, and to evaluate and compare safety factors calculated by the different available numerical methods. The stability was assessed for slopes of complex geometry and heterogeneous material using the limit equilibrium method and the shear strength reduction method based on finite elements. Furthermore, numerical analysis was done under static and pseudo-static loading using the horizontal seismic coefficient to model their stability during a seismic event. The slope stability analysis indicates that the studied slopes are unstable, and any small scale disturbance will further reduce the factor of safety and probably causing failure. The critical strength reduction factors from the finite element method are significantly lower than the factor of safety from the limit equilibrium method in all studied scenarios, such as Bishop, Janbu Simplified, Spencer and Morgenstern-Price. The difference is especially evident for heterogeneous slopes with joints, which often are initiation points for the failure planes. The simulations show that slope stability of landslide prone hills in the study area strongly depends on the saturation conditions and the seismic load. The studied slopes are initially close to failure and increased pore-pressure or seismic load are very likely triggers.