ERE1.5

In times of international agreements and efforts to mitigate climate change and meet sustainable development, ecosystem management and forest conservation deserve special attention to promote human and environmental sustenance. Tropical forests have been declining worldwide, and biodiversity is under constant threat. Understanding the future potential of environmental services requires analysis of the relationship of socioeconomic drivers and anthropogenic land use change (LUC). Population and economic growth, agricultural production, and human capital have a dual relationship of cause and consequence with LUC. Likewise, changing patterns of land use, through agriculture and silviculture activities, is directly associated to market and technical progress, but also to political, institutional, and socioeconomic development. Studying such relationships enhances the analyses on the ability of institutional factors to promote environmental conservation, economic growth, and social welfare. Studies on LUC are historically based on physical variables; however, institutional and political drivers have shown to be core to forest degradation. The present paper aims at investigating the role of physical and institutional factor on global deforestation. This paper draws from recent global remote sensing data on land use from ESA Climate Change Initiative (ESA/CCI) from 1992 and 2015. To assess drivers of deforestation, we employ a logit model regression accounting for a global spatially explicit dataset on land use, regressed with physical, economic, and socioeconomic variables. We make use of the suitability indicators calculated by IIASA for different agricultural crops within the Global Agro-Ecological Zones modelling. As institutional factors we consider areas under protection based on spatial datasets provided by UNEP and wetland international, and include the country level corruption index of Transparency International. Our preliminary analysis shows that institutional instability is significantly related to LUC. In areas where land should be under protection due to non-market ecosystem services, political instability is likely to stimulate land use. Likewise, insecurity in land tenure might lead to a short-term maximization of profits, through full deforestation and exploitation of the soil fertility, instead of a long-term sustainable use.

How to cite: Moreira Dantas, I. R. and Söder, M.: Global Deforestation Revisited: The Role of Political and Institutional Factors, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16050, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16050, 2021.

Over the past 40 years, Paraguay has lost the majority of its natural forest cover, thus becoming one of the countries with the highest deforestation rates in the world. Uninterrupted deforestation practices in the Paraguayan Chaco between 1987 and 2012 resulted in the loss of 27% of its original cover, accounting for almost 44,000 km² of forested areas depleted. The rapid expansion of the agricultural frontier, cattle ranching, and illegal logging has converted the last forest remnants into isolated patches, thus endangering their continuity and biodiversity within them. In response to these events, the Paraguayan government has implemented numerous environmental programs and regulations to amend the damage that had happened in the past. Although governmental agencies claim a reduction in deforestation activities in the region, proper scientific environmental data that analyze the long-term effect of such regulations/programs remain scarce. Within this context, the present research analyzes the impact of local governments on changes occurred in Paraguayan Chaco forest between the years 1986 and 2020. Remote sensing data acquired from Landsat 4, 5, 7 and 8 images were used to derive the extent of the forest cover and deforestation rates over 34 years. Dynamics of the forest cover was correlated with each of the 10 government terms within the timeframe of the study. By analyzing the forest cover data during and after each term (around five years per government term), we sought to understand the influence of local policies on deforestation activities in the eco-region, aiming to identify social, political, and institutional drivers of change. A comprehensive assessment of creation and effectivities of protected areas, land concession to indigenous communities, and development/implementation of local policies and environmental laws are part of this study. Preliminary results show a significative difference on forest cover loss among governments terms ranging between 1% (2,385 km²) and 9% (14,422 km²). The lack of clear regulations, sound law enforcement, financial support, and inappropriate governance were initially identified as key drivers of change. The use of multi-temporal information was demonstrated to be a key component for designing, supporting, and monitoring conservation strategies and policies. It is crucial to consider not only the outlook of laws and policies aiming to halt deforestation activities but their actual influence on the behavior of natural resources over time.

How to cite: Garcia Calabrese, M., Salinas Romero, S., Cassacia Ibarrola, C., Morinigo, L., Alvarenga, M., and Da Ponte, E.: Understanding the relationship between environmental policies and deforestation activities in the Paraguayan Chaco, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10020, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10020, 2021.

Land use in the nearby of a Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) landfill can be strongly affected by the waste management tasks (transport, landfilling and closure). Effects extend from the phases prior to the construction of the landfill until years after the completion of the landfilling process in areas located beyond the perimeter of the plot occupied by the landfill. In this work a new methodology for the analysis of land use change over time is presented. The methodology is based on the use of a new environmental index named WEI (Weighted Environmental Index). WEI is based on the use of GIS techniques accounting for different information sources (digital cartography, aerial photographs and satellite images). WEI assigns environmental values to land use based on the degree of anthropogenic intervention and its occupation surface. A georeferenced multitemporal statistical analysis is performed considering the values of WEI previously assigned to every land use. The methodology has been applied to analyze the land use change near the main MSW landfills of Valencia Region (Spain) where landfilling is currently the only waste disposal technique available. Data have been obtained from the Spanish Land Occupation Information System (SIOSE) public database and integrate GIS information about land use/land cover on an extensive, high-detailed scale. Results demonstrate the application of the WEI to real case studies and the importance of integrating statistical analysis of WEI evolution over time to arrive at a better understanding of the socio-economic and environmental processes that induce land-use change.

How to cite: Rodrigo-Ilarri, J., Romero-Hernández, C. P., and Rodrigo-Clavero, M.-E.: Evaluation of the land use evolution near solid waste landfills using a new weighted environmental index based on GIS techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12671, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12671, 2021.

In semi-arid to arid South-west Morocco, the once ubiquitous endemic argan tree (Argania spinosa) forms the basis of a traditional silvo-pastoral agroforestry system with complex usage rights involving pasturing and tree-browsing by goats, sheep and camels, smallholder agriculture and oil production. Widespread clearing of the open-canopy argan forests has been undertaken in the 12^th–17^th century for sugarcane production, and again in the 20^th century for fuelwood extraction and conversion to commercial agriculture. The remaining argan woodlands have continued to decline due to firewood extraction, charcoal-making, overgrazing and overbrowsing. Soil and vegetation are increasingly being degraded; natural rejuvenation is hindered, and soil-erosion rates rise due to reduced infiltration and increased runoff. Numerous studies indicate that tree density and canopy cover have been generally decreasing for the last 200 years. However, there is little quantitative and spatially explicit information about these forest-cover dynamics.

In our study, the tree-cover change between 1967 and 2019 was analysed for 30 test sites of 1 ha each in argan woodlands of different degradation stages in the provinces of Taroudant, Agadir Ida-Outanane and Chtouka-Aït Baha. We used historical black-and-white satellite photography from the American reconnaissance programme CORONA, recent high-resolution multispectral imagery from the commercial WorldView satellites and ultrahigh resolution small-format aerial photography taken with an unmanned aerial system (UAS) to map the presence, absence and comparative crown-size class of 2610 trees in 1967 and 2019. We supplemented the remotely-sensed data with field observations on tree structure and architecture.

Results show that plant densities reach up to 300 argan trees and shrubs per hectare, and the mean tree density has increased from 58 trees/ha in 1967 to 86 trees/ha in 2019. While 7% of the 1967 trees have vanished today, more than one third of today’s trees could not be observed in 1967. This positive change has a high uncertainty, however, as most of the increase concerns small trees (< 3 m diameter) which might have been missed on the lower-resolution CORONA images.

When combined with our field data on tree architecture, tree count – albeit a parameter easily attained by remote sensing – is revealed as too simple an indicator for argan-forest dynamics, and the first impression of a positive development needs to be revised: The new small trees as well as trees with decreased crown sizes clearly show much stronger degradation characteristics than others, indicating increased pressures on the argan ecosystem during recent decades. Structural traits of the smaller trees also suggest that the apparent increase of tree count is not a result of natural rejuvenation, but mostly of stump re-sprouting, often into multi-stemmed trees, after felling of a tree. The density of the argan forest in the 1960s, prior to the general availability of cooking gas in the region and before the stronger enforcement of the argan logging ban following the declaration of the UNESCO biosphere reserve, may have marked a historic low in our study area, making the baseline of our change analysis far removed from the potential natural state of the argan ecosystem.

How to cite: Marzolff, I., Kirchhoff, M., Stephan, R., Seeger, M., Aït Hssaïne, A., and Ries, J. B.: Degradation or recovery of argan woodlands in South Morocco? Tree count from satellite imagery between 1967–2019 may underestimate pressures on dryland forests status, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2612, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2612, 2021.

Biosphere Reserves (BR) are territories recognized by UNESCO for their natural and cultural heritage and their role in promoting solutions to harmonize biodiversity conservation with the sustainable use of natural resources. Further, BRs are identified as “learning places for sustainable development”, emphasizing their importance to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals. However, Portuguese BRs lack recognition from society as well as from the local, regional or national entities as privileged instruments and areas for valuing and developing the territory.

To enhance the relevance and visibility of the BRs in society and among stakeholders, we designed a project based on the assessment of ecosystem services (ES), as they play fundamental roles in the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, and on the sustainability of the communities and their territories. Our project seeks to structure and foster collective dynamics in these social-ecological systems, respecting the autonomy and diversity of context and heritage that characterizes the Portuguese BRs. Our work is based on a conceptual model with three fundamental pillars. First, we will identify available geographical and biological information and combine it with remote sensing data (Landsat and Sentinel) to map the current and potential ES provided by Portuguese BRs. Second, in each BR, we will implement participatory multi-actor methodologies and focal groups to select the key ES to promote sustainable development and valorisation of natural endogenous resources. To do so, we will use a holistic assessment of the ecological, economic and social values of the different ES, as well as of their role in mitigating and adapting to climate change and environmental change. Finally, we will train local stakeholders on the valuing, promotion and sustainable production and consumption of ES, as to help these communities implementing the Sustainable Development Plans that will be prepared for each BR and in accordance with the UN’s Agenda 2030.

Through complementary initiatives and a comprehensive and networked programmatic action, “Biosphere Reserves: Sustainable territories, Resilient communities” seeks to add value to Portuguese BRs, increasing their resilience and sustainability, and to promote their unique territories and heritage, while showcasing them as model areas for the sustainable development.

How to cite: Alves, J., Duran, J., Sousa, J. P., Castro, P., Martinho, F., Pardal, M., Måren, I., and Freitas, H.: Biosphere Reserves: Sustainable territories, Resilient communities – A conceptual model for the assessment of ecosystem services, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13567, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13567, 2021.

Land system change is implicated in many sustainability challenges as its alteration impacts ecosystems and exacerbate the vulnerability of communities, particularly where livelihoods are largely dependent on natural resources. The production of a land use-cover map for year 2020 extended the time-series for assessing land use-cover dynamics over a period of 45 years (1975-2020). The case of Nigeria is examined as the land area encompass several agro-ecological zones. The classification scheme countries utilise for estimating Land Degradation Neutrality baseline and monitoring of the Sustainable Development Goal 15.3.1 indicator (proportion of degraded land over total land area) was used, based on seven land use-cover classes (tree-covered area, grassland, cropland, wetland, artificial surface area, otherland, and waterbody). Severity of land degradation, computed as changes in vegetation productivity using the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), as well as changes in ecosystem service values were examined across the different land use-cover types, in areas of change and persistence. Land degradation is most severe in settlement areas and wetlands with declining trends in 34% of settlement areas and 29% in wetlands respectively. About 19% of tree-covered areas experienced increasing trends. In some areas of land use-cover persistence, vegetation productivity declined despite no land change occurring. For example, vegetation productivity declined in about 35% and 9% of persistent wetlands and otherland respectively between 2000 and 2020, whereas there was improvement in 22% of persistent grasslands, 18% of persistent otherlands and 12% of persistent croplands. In land change areas, about 12% and 8% of wetlands and tree-covered areas had declining vegetation trends respectively, whereas it improved the most in croplands (20%), and grasslands (16%). With some wetland, cropland and otherland areas degrading the most, protecting these critical ecosystems is required to sustain their functions and services. The finding that vegetation productivity may decline in areas of persistence underscores the importance of intersecting land use-cover (in terms of persistence and change) with vegetation productivity to identify pathways for enhancing ecological sustainability.

How to cite: Akinyemi, F. and Ifejika Speranza, C.: Land change effects on ecosystem degradation across Nigerian agro-ecological zones from 1975 through 2020, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7204, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7204, 2021.

Declining land productivity remains a challenge for agricultural-based livelihoods and for achieving food security. This is particularly the case in social-ecological contexts where people are largely dependent on local food production for their livelihoods and food security, such as among rural communities in the Nigeria Guinea Savannah. Yet how land users perceive the problem of land degradation and their capacity to manage land in an environmentally sustainable manner, can influence the measures they can initiate to address land degradation. Using a case study of Niger state, Nigeria, this study examines land users’ experiences and land management measures to address land degradation in the Nigeria Guinea Savannah. 30 communities were purposively selected based on the validated mapping of the hotspots of degraded areas. We adapted the World Overview of Conservation Approaches and Technologies Sustainable Land Management questionnaires to also capture perceptions and administered 225 questionnaires to land users. Through, key informant interviews further insights and data on perspectives and motivations of land users and communities were collected to understand the land degradation situation and interpret the questionnaire surveys. Through qualitative and statistical analysis of differences in perceptions between socio-cultural strata, we show the relations between socio-demographic, socio-economic factors, and land degradation. We discuss land governance and sustainable land management practices for improving land productivity in the region.

How to cite: Ademola, A., Boillat, S., and Ifejika Speranza, C.: Land users’ perceptions of land degradation and implications for sustainable land management and governance in Niger State, Nigeria, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7415, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7415, 2021.

Water withdrawals for irrigated crop production constitute the largest global consumer of blue water resources. Monitoring the dynamics of irrigated crop cultivation allows to track changes in water consumption of irrigated cropping, which is particularly paramount in water-scarce arid and semi-arid areas. We analyzed changes in irrigated crop cultivation along with occurrence of hydrological droughts for the Amu Darya river basin of Central Asia (534,700 km²), once the largest tributary river to the Aral Sea before large-scale irrigation projects have grossly reduced the amount of water that reaches the river delta. We used annual and seasonal spectral-temporal metrics derived from Landsat time series to quantify the three predominant cropping practices in the region (first season, second season, double cropping) for every year between 1988 and 2020. We further derived unbiased area estimates for the cropping classes at the province level based on a stratified random sample (n=2,779). Our results reveal a small yet steady decrease in irrigated second season cultivation across the basin. Regionally, we observed a gradual move away from cotton monocropping in response to the policy changes that were instigated since the mid-1990s. We compared the observed cropping dynamics to the occurrence of hydrological droughts, i.e., periods with inadequate water resources for irrigation. We find that areas with higher drought risks rely more on irrigation of the second season crops. Overall, our analysis provides the first fine-scale, annual crop type maps for the irrigated areas in the Amu Darya basin. The results shed light on how institutional changes and hydroclimatic factors that affect land-use decision-making, and thus the dynamics of crop type composition, in the vast irrigated areas of Central Asia.

How to cite: Müller, D., Dara, A., Krause, C., Peña-Guerrero, M. D., Schmitz, T., Umirbekov, A., Wei, Y., and Rufin, P.: Post-Soviet changes in irrigated crop production in the Amu Darya Basin, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-16266, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-16266, 2021.

The land sector plays a crucial role in the context of climate change, being both a contributor to the problem and part of its solution. On one side, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture, forestry and other land uses (AFOLU sector) cover the 24% of global emissions, representing the second hot spot in the contribution to climate change after the energy sector. On the other side, this sector offers the exclusive capacity to remove atmospheric carbon dioxide and store it in soils and biomass.

The challenge is to understand the extent to which sustainable land management can be a valuable solution to increase the mitigation potential of the land sector, particularly at small-scale rural landscape level. A land-based approach is developed and tested for application at small-scale rural landscape level, aiming at reducing and offsetting GHG emissions from the livestock activities, one of the main sources of GHG emissions of the whole agricultural sector. The proposed land-based approach builds on an ensemble of methodologies, including Geographic Information System (GIS) elaboration, Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and methodologies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), that allow estimating livestock GHG emissions and the mitigation potential of sustainable land-use options applied in the same small-scale rural landscape (e.g. improvement of ruminants’ diet, biogas from manure, reduction of synthetic fertilizers, minimum/no-tillage, natural herbaceous cover, reuse of agricultural residues, new orchards and forests on marginal lands).

Results from a case study in Italy show that land-based mitigation options applied at small-scale rural landscape level can reduce and completely offset the GHG livestock emissions of the same area, leading to carbon neutral livestock systems, in line with the objectives of the EU Green Deal and the global climate commitments. Thus, this study confirms that the land sector can strongly contribute to climate change mitigation if sustainable land-use options are applied. Moreover, when sustainable land-use options are applied with a proximity approach in a small-scale, the results are not limited to the carbon neutrality of the livestock production but involve also other tangible environmental and socio-economic benefits in the territory (e.g. sustainable agriculture, biodiversity protection, water and air quality, new green areas, tourism, well-being etc.). 

A such sustainable land-based approach can be applied to all food systems (not only livestock) and can be scaled at global level involving an infinite number of districts (organized at local, regional or national level) with the potential to influence globally the food production toward a sustainable model of the whole land sector. The implementation of a such sustainable land management aiming to a carbon neutral food production can be supported at public policies level, under the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the Carbon Farming schemes, but also by the private sector in the framework of voluntary carbon mechanisms.   

How to cite: Chiriacò, M. V. and Valentini, R.: A land-based approach for climate change mitigation in the livestock sector, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7959, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7959, 2021.

Violent conflicts related to pastoralists-farmers’ interactions in Nigeria have assumed an unprecedented dimension, causing loss of lives and livelihoods. The mid-Benue trough (Benue and Taraba States) has suffered most from the conflicts. This study aims to provide knowledge on the socio-ecological drivers of pastoralists-farmers’ conflicts in the mid-Benue trough from the year 2000 to 2020 and to identify pathways to solving them. First, data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project were used to map the conflicts. Second, to understand the nexus of climate change, land use and the conflicts, the study analyzed satellite data of Land Surface Temperature (LST) as a proxy for climate change, using data from the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite and Land Use Land Cover (LULC), using LandSat 7 ETM and LandSat 8 ETM+ data, then linked them to the mapped conflicts. Third, to understand causes and impacts of the conflict on pastoralists and farmers’ livelihoods, 100 interviews were conducted, 50 for each group and analyzed using content analysis and descriptive statistics. Results showed that there were 2532 fatalities from 309 conflict events between pastoralists and farmers. The incidents exhibited statistically significant clustering and were minimal between the year 2000 and 2012, increasing gradually until the year 2013 when it began to rise geometrically. The Getis-Ord Gi hotspot analysis revealed the conflict hotspots to include Agatu, Oturkpo, Gwer East and Gashaka Local Government Areas. The results from the LST analysis showed that the area coverage of high LST increased from 30 percent in 2000 to 38 percent in 2020, while extremely high LST area also increased from 14 to 16 percent. A significantly high percentage of the conflicts (87 percent) occurred in areas with high LST (>30⁰C). In addition, the LULC analyses showed that built-up land area increased by 35 km² (0.1 percent) and dense forests reduced by 798 km² (0.1 percent). Notably, shrublands and grasslands, which are the resource domains of the pastoralists reduced by 11,716 km²  (13.1 percent) and croplands of farmers increased by 12,316 km² (13.8 percent). This presents an apparent transition of LULC from shrublands and grasslands to croplands in the area. Further analyses showed that 63 percent of the conflicts occurred in croplands and 16 percent in shrublands and grasslands. Hence, the reduction of land resource available to pastoralists and their subsequent cropland encroachment were identified as major causes of the conflict. It was therefore concluded that land development for other purposes is a major driver of pastoralists-farmers’ conflicts in the study area. There is thus a need to integrate conflict maps, LST and LULC dynamics to support dialogue, land use planning and policy formulation for sustainable land management to guide pastoral and farming activities.

How to cite: Njoku, C., Okpiliya, F., Efiong, J., and Ifejika Speranza, C.: Pastoralists-farmers’ conflicts in Nigeria’s mid-Benue Trough: Socio-ecological drivers and pathways to addressing the conflicts., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13643, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13643, 2021.