NH1.1

EDI
Recent innovations and advances in flood modeling, assessment and risk management (Including levees and other flood defences)

This session is a merge session and jointly lead by the group of NH1.1 and NH1.2.
NH1.1: Innovative Techniques for Flood Forecasting, Assessment and Flood Risk Management
This session invites presentations on research based on high-resolution aerial, satellite and ML techniques for flood monitoring and modeling, including mapping of inundation extent, flow depths, velocity fields, flood-induced morphodynamics, and debris transport. It also invites the presentation of innovative modelling techniques of flood hydrodynamics, flood hazard, damage and risk assessment, as well as flood relief prioritization, dam and dike (levees) break floods, and flood mitigation strategies. Studies dealing with the modelling uncertainties and modern techniques for model calibration and validation are particularly welcome. Furthermore, real-time flood inundation mapping is a critical aspect for the evacuation of people from low-lying areas and to reduce casualties. Acquisition of real-time data gained through UAV-based flood inundation mapping, ML and modelling techniques, as well as assessment of uncertainties in real-time aerial surveying are welcome in this session. We also encourage contributions in integrative solutions at local, regional or global perspectives. Invited Speaker: Prof.Paul Bates (https://research-information.bris.ac.uk/en/persons/paul-d-bates)
NH1.2: Advances in modeling, failure assessment and monitoring of levees and other flood defences
The present session aims to provide a platform for the interdisciplinary exchange of knowledge among flood risk and other flood hazard related scientific communities interested in the modeling, assessment and monitoring of soil made flood defences, to share their experiences and advances in the field. Hence the session aims to present contributions regarding: 1) Numerical and experimental advances on failure mechanism understanding (e.g. Overtopping, piping erosion, Slope stability, etc) 2) Probabilistic assessment of flood defence design and reliability assessment. 3) Monitoring techniques of flood defences based on remote and direct instrumentation. 4) Alternative flood defence studies for evaluation of effect and performance of controlled failure, retention basins and fast infiltration surfaces on inundation models. 5) Artificial intelligence and data driven techniques for modeling, assessment and monitoring of soil flood defences.

Co-organized by HS13
Convener: Dhruvesh Patel | Co-conveners: Juan Pablo Aguilar-López, Andres Diaz Loaiza, Robert Lanzafame, Cristina Prieto, Benjamin Dewals, Dawei Han
vPICO presentations
| Wed, 28 Apr, 11:00–12:30 (CEST)

Session assets

Session materials

vPICO presentations: Wed, 28 Apr

Chairpersons: Cristina Prieto, Juan Pablo Aguilar-López, Dhruvesh Patel
11:00–11:05
11:05–11:15
|
EGU21-14646
|
solicited
|
Highlight
Paul Bates, Niall Quinn, Christopher Sampson, Andrew Smith, Oliver Wing, James Savage, Gaia Olcese, Jeison Sosa, and Jeff Neal

This talk reports a new and significantly enhanced analysis of US flood hazard at 30m spatial resolution.  For the first time we consider pluvial, fluvial and coastal flood hazards within the same framework and provide projections for both current (rather than historic average) conditions and for future time periods centred on 2035 and 2050 under the RCP4.5 emissions pathway.  Validation against high quality local models and the entire catalogue of FEMA 1% annual probability flood maps yielded Critical Success Index values in the range 0.69-0.82.  Significant improvements over a previous pluvial/fluvial model version are shown for high frequency events and coastal zones, along with minor improvements in areas where model performance was already good.  The result is the first comprehensive and consistent national scale analysis of flood hazard for the conterminous US for both current and future conditions.  Even though we consider a stabilization emissions scenario and a near future time horizon we project clear patterns of changing flood hazard (3σ changes in 100yr inundated area of -3.8 to +16% at 1° scale), that are significant when considered as a proportion of the land area where human use is possible or in terms of the currently protected land area where the standard of flood defence protection may become compromised by this time.

How to cite: Bates, P., Quinn, N., Sampson, C., Smith, A., Wing, O., Savage, J., Olcese, G., Sosa, J., and Neal, J.: US fluvial, pluvial and coastal flood hazard under current and future climates, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14646, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14646, 2021.

11:15–11:17
|
EGU21-1199
|
ECS
Anna E. Sikorska-Senoner

Hydrologic models are employed in the flood risk studies to simulate time series of model responses to given inputs. These simulated time series of pseudo-observations can be next statistically analysed and in this way they can extend existing observed records. Simulations of hydrologic models are however associated with modelling uncertainty, often represented through a simulation ensemble with multiple parameter sets. The need of using multiple parameter sets to represent uncertainty is linked however with increased computational costs that may become prohibitive for long-time series and many input scenarios to be analysed. Due to the non-linear input-output relationship in the hydrologic model, a pre-selection of parameter sets is challenging.

This work presents a clustering approach as a tool to learn about the model hydrologic responses in the flood frequency space from the training dataset. Based on this learning process, representative parameter sets are selected that can be directly used in other model applications to derive prediction intervals at much lower computational costs. The study is supported with sensitivity analysis to the number of clusters. Based on results from a small catchment in Switzerland and 10’000 years of streamflow pseudo-observations, it has been found that grouping the full simulation ensemble with 1000 members into 3 to 10 clusters is already suitable to derive commonly applied prediction intervals (90%, 95% or 98%) in the flood frequency space. The proposed clustering approach can be applied in any flood risk analysis to lower the computational costs linked with the use of a hydrologic model.

How to cite: Sikorska-Senoner, A. E.: Clustering model responses in the frequency space for improved flood risk analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1199, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1199, 2021.

11:17–11:22
|
EGU21-9838
|
ECS
|
solicited
|
Highlight
Ana Juárez, Knut Alfredsen, Morten Stickler, Ana Adeva-Bustos, Sonia Seguín-Garcia, Bendik Hansen, and Rodrigo Suarez

Floods are among the most damaging natural disasters which are likely to increase with the effects of climate change and changes in land use. Therefore, rivers have been the focus of engineering for establishing structural flood mitigation measures. Traditional flood infrastructure, such as levees and dredging have threatened floodplains and river ecosystems and during the last decade, sustainable reconciliation of freshwater ecosystems is increasing. However, we still find many areas where these traditional measures are proposed and it is challenging to find tools for evaluations of different measures and quantification of the possible impacts. We propose the use of hydraulic modelling and remote sensing data for evaluation of different flood strategies and quantification of changes in hydraulic parameters in an ecological scale. This is applied in Lærdal River, in Norway, a national salmon river specially recognized by its environment for Atlantic salmon, where the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has proposed l flood measures that include confinement with walls and dredging in the riverbed. Results show that the constructing a higher wall could avoid dredging in the river bed resulting in a most cost-effective solution. Dredging could improve hydraulic conditions for juvenile salmon if applied as river restoration measure but channelization of the river would have big impacts in the river ecosystem.

How to cite: Juárez, A., Alfredsen, K., Stickler, M., Adeva-Bustos, A., Seguín-Garcia, S., Hansen, B., and Suarez, R.: A conflict between traditional flood measures and maintaining river ecosystems. A case study in river Lærdal, Norway, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9838, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9838, 2021.

11:22–11:24
|
EGU21-4723
|
ECS
Andrea Magnini, Michele Lombardi, Simone Persiano, Antonio Tirri, Francesco Lo Conti, and Attilio Castellarin

Every year flood events cause worldwide vast economic losses, as well as heavy social and environmental impacts, which have been steadily increasing for the last five decades due to the complex interaction between climate change and anthropogenic pressure (i.e. land-use and land-cover modifications). As a result, the body of literature on flood risk assessment is constantly and rapidly expanding, aiming at developing faster, computationally lighter and more efficient methods relative to the traditional and resource-intensive hydrodynamic numerical models. Recent and reliable fast-processing techniques for flood hazard assessment and mapping consider binary geomorphic classifiers retrieved from the analysis of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs). These procedures (termed herein “DEM-based methods”) produce binary maps distinguishing between floodable and non-floodable areas based on the comparison between the local value of the considered geomorphic classifier and a threshold, which in turn is calibrated against existing flood hazard maps. Previous studies have shown the reliability of DEM-based methods using a single binary classifier, they also highlighted that different classifiers are associated with different performance, depending on the geomorphological, climatic and hydrological characteristics of the study area. The present study maps flood-prone areas and predicts water depth associated with a given non-exceedance probability by combining several geomorphic classifiers and terrain features through regression trees and random forests. We focus on Northern Italy (c.a. 100000 km2, including Po, Adige, Brenta, Bacchiglione and Reno watersheds), and we consider the recently compiled MERIT (Multi-Error Removed Improved-Terrain) DEM, with 3sec-resolution (~90m at the Equator). We select the flood hazard maps provided by (i) the Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), and (ii) the Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission as reference maps. Our findings (a) confirm the usefulness of machine learning techniques for improving univariate DEM-based flood hazard mapping, (b) enable a discussion on potential and limitations of the approach and (c) suggest promising pathways for further exploring DEM-based approaches for predicting a likely water depth distribution with flood-prone areas. 

How to cite: Magnini, A., Lombardi, M., Persiano, S., Tirri, A., Lo Conti, F., and Castellarin, A.: Combination of geomorphic classifiers through Machine Learning-based techniques for flood hazard assessment , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4723, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4723, 2021.

11:24–11:26
|
EGU21-10445
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Goutam Konapala and Sujay Kumar

Identification of flood water extent from satellite images has historically relied on either synthetic aperture radar (SAR) or multi-spectral (MS) imagery. But MS sensors may not penetrate cloud cover, whereas SAR is plagued by operational errors such as noise-like speckle challenging their viability to global flood mapping applications. An attractive alternative is to effectively combine MS data and SAR, i.e., two aspects that can be considered complementary with respect to flood mapping tasks. Therefore, in this study, we explore the diverse bands of Sentinel 2 (S2) derived water indices and Sentinel 1 (S1) derived SAR imagery along with their combinations to access their capability in generating accurate flood inundation maps. For this purpose, a fully connected deep convolutional neural network known as U-Net is applied to combinations of S1 and S2 bands to 446 (training: 313, validating: 44, testing: 89) hand labeled flood inundation extents derived from Sen1Floods11 dataset spanning across 11 flood events. The trained U-net was able to achieve a median F1 score of 0.74 when using DEM and S1 bands as input in comparison to 0.63 when using only S1 bands highlighting the active positive role of DEM in mapping floods. Among the, S2 bands, HSV (Hue, Saturation, Value) transformation of Sentinel 2 data has achieved a median F1 score of 0.94 outperforming the commonly used water spectral indices owing to HSV’s transformation’s superior contrast distinguishing abilities. Also, when combined with Sentinel 1 SAR imagery too, HSV achieves a median F1 score 0.95 outperforming all the well-established water indices in detecting floods in majority of test images.

How to cite: Konapala, G. and Kumar, S.: Exploring Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 diversity for Flood inundation mapping using deep learning, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10445, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10445, 2021.

11:26–11:28
|
EGU21-4187
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Azazkhan Ibrahimkhan Pathan, Dr.Prasit Girishbhai Agnihotri, Dr. Dhruvesh Patel, and Dr. Critina Prieto

Flooding seems to be the most widespread and common catastrophe in a tropical country such as India. Efficient rainfall, industrial development, huge population, the effect of the tide, and urban growth are actual reasons for flooding in urban coastal regions. Navsari, the city of Gujarat, located 19 km upstream of the Arabian Sea. The city has experienced a devastating flood on 4rth August 2004. Flash flooding and maximum discharge estimated at the Mahuva gauge station of about 8836 m3/sec were responsible for a disaster that resulted in massive damage to property and lives. A two dimensional (2D) flood simulation model is carried out to assessment of flood inundation in an urban coastal area. HEC-RAS is one of the most popular open-source hydraulic software having 2D capabilities including GIS features. In the present study, the distance between the Mahuva gauge station to the Arabian sea was considered for flood inundation assessment, whereas the SRTM 30 m DEM was used for grid generation for Navsari city. The inflow hydrograph was used as the upstream boundary condition, and normal depth was used as the downstream boundary condition during the 4th August 2004 flood event. The unsteady flow simulation was performed and validated for the year of 2004 flood event. The simulated outcomes show that major areas such as Viraval, Kachiawad, Jalalpore, near Railway station, Kaliawad, Tavdi village, and Near TATA School were flooded with 2-4 m depth. Furthermore, the simulated result demonstrates that, if the discharge exceeds 8836 m3/sec in the area of a floodplain, it may take 11 to 13 hours to make the city inundated. The R2 value for the model is 0.9679, which shows that the observed value is the best match with the simulated value. The research study illustrates the accurate flood inundation assessment in the urban coastal area using open-source 2D HEC-RAS model. The present study described the applicability of open-source data and model in flood inundation assessment. The study will fill the gap of flood assessment through 2D HEC-RAS model worldwide areas, which are situated nearby coastal region, accompanied by the benefits of open-source dataset and model.

How to cite: Pathan, A. I., Agnihotri, Dr. P. G., Patel, Dr. D., and Prieto, Dr. C.: Improving assessment of flood inundation of Navsari (India) via open-source data and HEC-RAS model, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4187, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4187, 2021.

11:28–11:30
|
EGU21-6483
Kai Schröter, Max Steinhausen, Fabio Brill, Stefan Lüdtke, Daniel Eggert, Bruno Merz, and Heidi Kreibich

Globally increasing flood losses due to anthropogenic climate change and growing exposure underline the need for effective emergency response and recovery. Knowing the inundation situation and resulting losses during or shortly after a flood is crucial for decision making in emergency response and recovery. With increasing amounts of data available from a growing number and diversity of sensors and data sources, data science methods offer great opportunities for combining data and extracting knowledge about flood processes in near real-time.

The main objective of this research is to develop a rapid and reliable flood depth mapping procedure by integrating information from multiple sensors and data sources. The created flood depth maps serve as input for the prediction of flood impacts. This contribution presents outcomes of a demonstration case using the flood of June 2013 in Dresden (Germany) where satellite remote sensing data, water level observations at the gauge Dresden and Volunteered Geographic Information based on social media images providing information about flooding are combined using statistical and machine learning-based data fusion algorithms. A detailed post-event inundation depth map based on terrestrial survey data and aerial images is available as a reference map and is used for evaluation. First results show that the individual datasets have different strengths and weaknesses. The combination of multiple data sources is able to counteract the weaknesses of single datasets and provide a significantly improved flood map and impact assessment. Our work is conducted within the Digital Earth Project (.

 

How to cite: Schröter, K., Steinhausen, M., Brill, F., Lüdtke, S., Eggert, D., Merz, B., and Kreibich, H.: Multi-source flood mapping for rapid impact assessment, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6483, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6483, 2021.

Breakout Text Chat Continue
11:30–11:32
|
EGU21-6049
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Youtong Rong, Paul Bates, and Jeffrey Neal

The flood caused by a dam-break event generally contains a large amount of energy, and it can be destructive to the downstream buildings and structures. An experiment-validated three-dimensional numerical model was designed to investigate the impact of dam-break flood on structures with different arrangements. The Eulerian two-phase flow model and the smooth particle dynamics method are applied separately to solve the flow motion, and  the deformation characteristics of buildings under the flood impact are evaluated by fluid-structure interaction model. An experiment is constructed to validate the numerical simulation. The results show that the structure suffers a large instantaneous impact pressure when the flood water first contacts the structure, and the value of this pressure can reach 1.5-3.0 times that of the maximum pressure after the first impact, and the maximum total pressure of the upstream building surface is about 1800N. The deformation near the door and windows is obvious, and the maximum deformation can reach 600μm, which further results in the large deformation of the gable and roof on both sides. Moreover, the arrangement of buildings has different blocking effect on flood. The back-row buildings arranged in alignment along the flow direction still has to bear 20% flood impact, and the front row buildings arranged alternately bear 90% high-speed flow impact. The structural damage is evaluated by the material failure criterion, and the weak position of buildings is identified, providing an optimal design of buildings.

How to cite: Rong, Y., Bates, P., and Neal, J.: Safety evaluation of buildings under flood impact, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6049, 2021.

11:32–11:34
|
EGU21-121
|
ECS
Vincent Schmitz, Grégoire Wylock, Kamal El Kadi Abderrezzak, Ismail Rifai, Michel Pirotton, Sébastien Erpicum, Pierre Archambeau, and Benjamin Dewals

Failure of fluvial dykes often leads to devastating consequences in the protected areas. Overtopping flow is, by far, the most frequent cause of failure of fluvial dykes. Numerical modeling of the breaching mechanisms and induced flow is crucial to assess the risk and guide emergency plans.

Various types of numerical models have been developed for dam and dyke breach simulations, including 2D and 3D morphodynamic models (e.g., Voltz et al., 2017 ; Dazzi et al., 2019 ; Onda et al., 2019). Nevertheless, simpler models are a valuable complement to the detailed models, since they enable fast multiple model runs to test, e.g. a broad range of possible breach locations or to perform uncertainty analysis. Moreover, unlike statistical formulae, physically-based lumped models are reasonably accurate and remain interesting in terms of process-understanding (Wu, 2013 ; Zhong et al., 2017 ; Yanlong, 2020).

Nonetheless, existing lumped physically-based models were developed and tested mostly in frontal configurations, i.e. for the case of breaching of an embankment dam and not a fluvial dyke. Despite similarities in the processes, the breaching mechanisms involved in the case of fluvial dykes differ due to several factors such as a loss of symmetry and flow momentum parallel to the breach (Rifai et al., 2017). Therefore, there is a need to assess the transfer of existing lumped physically-based models to configurations involving fluvial dyke breaching.

Here, we have developed a modular computational modeling framework, in which we are able to implement various physically-based lumped models of dyke breaching. In this framework, we started with our own implementation of the model presented by Wu (2013) and we incorporated a number of changes to the model. Next, we evaluated the model performance for a number of laboratory and field tests covering both frontal (Frank, 2016; Hassan and Morris, 2008) and fluvial (Rifai et al., 2017; 2018; Kakinuma and Shimizu, 2014) configurations. The modular framework we have developed proves also particularly suitable for testing the sensitivity and uncertainties arising from assumptions in the model structure and parameters.

How to cite: Schmitz, V., Wylock, G., El Kadi Abderrezzak, K., Rifai, I., Pirotton, M., Erpicum, S., Archambeau, P., and Dewals, B.: Assessment of lumped physically-based numerical models of dyke breaching, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-121, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-121, 2021.

11:34–11:36
|
EGU21-679
|
ECS
|
Highlight
Vera van Bergeijk, Jord Warmink, and Suzanne Hulscher

Wave overtopping on grass-covered dikes results in erosion of the dike cover. Once the dike cover is eroded, the core will be washed away and the dike breaches, leading to flooding of the hinterland. Transitions between grass covers and revetments or geometric transitions are vulnerable for cover erosion and are therefore the most likely locations to initiate dike breach. These transitions affect the overtopping flow and thereby the hydraulic load on the dike cover. For example, bed roughness differences can create additional turbulence and slope changes can result in the formation of a jet that increases the load at the jet impact location. Although it is known that dike cover failure often starts at transitions, the effect of transitions on the hydraulic load remains unknown.

We developed a detailed numerical 2DV model in OpenFOAM for the overtopping flow over the crest and the landward slope of a grass-covered dike. This model is used to study the effects of transitions on the overtopping flow variables including the flow velocity, shear stress, normal stress and pressure. Several types of transitions are studied such as revetment transitions, slope changes and height differences. 

The results show that the shear stress, normal stress and pressure increase significantly at geometric transitions such as the transition from the crest to the slope and at the landward toe. The increase depends on the wave volume and the geometry of the dike such as the steepness and length of the landward slope. Furthermore, the results show that roughness changes at revetment transition on a grass-covered crest has no influence on the maximum shear stress, maximum normal stress and maximum pressure. The flow velocity increases from a rough to a smooth revetment, while the opposite occurs for the transition from a smooth to a rough revetment. The variation in the flow velocity is well described by analytical formulas for the maximum flow velocity along the dike profile. These formulas are also able to describe the variation in flow velocity for a revetment transition on a berm on the landward slope. In this case, the shear stress increases from a smooth to a rough revetment and decreases from a rough to a smooth revetment. This means that a rough revetment can locally reduce the shear stress, however the transitions have no effect on the shear stress downstream.

These model results are used to obtain relations for the increase in the hydraulic variables at transitions. These relations can be used to describe the effect of transitions on the hydraulic load in models for grass cover failure by overtopping waves. Accurate descriptions of the hydraulic load in these models will improve the failure assessment of grass-covered dikes with transitions.

How to cite: van Bergeijk, V., Warmink, J., and Hulscher, S.: How do transitions affect the wave overtopping flow locally as well as downstream?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-679, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-679, 2021.

11:36–11:38
|
EGU21-4338
Manuel Wewer, Juan Pablo Aguilar-López, Matthijs Kok, and Thom Bogaard

Backward erosion piping (BEP) has been proven to be one of the main failure mechanisms of water-retaining structures worldwide. Dikes, which are often built on sandy aquifers, are particularly vulnerable to this special type of internal erosion. In this research, we propose a numerical solution that combines a 2D Darcy groundwater solution with Exner’s 1D sediment transport mass conservation equation. The inclusion of criteria for incipient particle motion, as well as the linkage of the bedload transport rate to the pipe progression, enables us to build a stable time-dependent piping model. As an estimate of sediment transport, we tested four different empirical transport equations for laminar flow. The model performance was evaluated based on the results of a real-scale dike failure experiment. Through this, we were able to demonstrate the applicability of existing sediment transport equations to the description of particle motion during piping erosion. The proposed transient piping model not only predicts the pipe progression in time, it also allows for an identification of pore pressure transitions due to the erosion process. The main finding of the study is that from the four different modeling approaches for laminar flow, it is recommended to follow the approach of Yalin et al. (1963, 1979) to simulate backward erosion piping in dikes.

How to cite: Wewer, M., Aguilar-López, J. P., Kok, M., and Bogaard, T.: A transient backward erosion piping model based on laminar flow transport equations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-4338, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-4338, 2021.

11:38–11:40
|
EGU21-6541
Isabel Iglesias, José Luís Pinho, Ana Bio, Paulo Avilez-Valente, Willian Melo, José Vieira, Luísa Bastos, and Fernando Veloso-Gomes

Estuarine regions are strategically important from an environmental, economic, and social point of view. To reduce vulnerability and increase resilience, it is crucial to know their dynamics that usually are poorly understood. Numerical models have proven to be an appropriate tool to improve this knowledge and simulate scenarios for future conditions. However, as the modelling results may be inaccurate, the application of the ensembles technique can be very useful in reducing possible uncertainties. In the EsCo-Ensembles project, this technique is proposed to improve hydrodynamic predictions for two Portuguese estuaries: Douro and Minho.

Two already validated numerical models (openTELEMAC-MASCARET and Delft3D), which have demonstrated their ability to accurately describe estuarine hydrodynamic patterns and water elevation for river flow in normal and extreme conditions, were applied. Several scenarios for climate change effects were defined including river flood peak flows for the 100 and 1000 year return periods and sea level extreme values for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2100.

The results demonstrated a clear difference between the hydrodynamic behaviour of the two estuaries. Model outcomes for the Minho estuary, which is dominated by the tide and therefore by oceanographic conditions, show a pronounced effect of rising sea levels on estuarine hydrodynamics. Whereas, for the Douro estuary, which is heavily dominated by the river flow, the effect of the sea level rise is hardly noticeable during flood events.

These and further results of this ongoing project are expected to (i) provide a complete hydrodynamic characterization of the two estuaries; (ii) evaluate future trends; (iii) estimate the flood risks associated with extreme events and (iv) demonstrate that the combined use of different models reduces their uncertainty and increases the confidence and consistency of the forecasts.

Acknowledgements: To the Strategic Funding UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020 (FCT and ERDF) and to the project EsCo-Ensembles (PTDC/ECI-EGC/30877/2017, NORTE 2020, Portugal 2020, ERDF and FCT). The authors also want to acknowledge the data provided by EDP, IH and Confederación Hidrográfica Miño-Sil.

How to cite: Iglesias, I., Pinho, J. L., Bio, A., Avilez-Valente, P., Melo, W., Vieira, J., Bastos, L., and Veloso-Gomes, F.: Future estuarine circulation patterns characterization based on a hydrodynamic models ensemble, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6541, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6541, 2021.

11:40–11:42
|
EGU21-7591
|
ECS
Claudia D'Angelo, Paola Passalacqua, Aldo Fiori, and Elena Volpi

Land use and delineation of flood-prone areas require valuable and effective tools, such as flood mapping. Local authorities, in order to prevent and mitigate the effects of flood events, need simplified methodologies for the definition of preliminary flooded areas at a large scale. In this work, we focus on the workflow GeoFlood, which can rapidly convert real-time and forecasted river flow conditions into flooding maps. It is built upon two methodologies, GeoNet and the HAND model, making use only of high-resolution DTMs to define the geomorphological and hydraulic information necessary for flood inundation mapping, thus allowing for large-scale simulations at a reasonable economical and computational cost. GeoFlood potential is tested over the mid-lower portion of the river Tiber (Italy), investigating the conditions under which it is able to reproduce successful inundation extent, considering a 200-year return period scenario. Results are compared to authority maps obtained through standard detailed hydrodynamic approaches. In order to analyze the influence of the main parameters involved, such as DTM resolution, channel segmentation length, and roughness coefficient, a sensitivity analysis is performed. GeoFlood proved to produce efficient and robust results, obtaining a slight over-estimation comparable to that provided by standard costly methods. It is a valid and relatively inexpensive framework for inundation mapping over large scales, considering all the uncertainties involved in any mapping procedure. Also, it can be useful for a preliminary delineation of regions where the investigation based on detailed hydrodynamic models is required.

How to cite: D'Angelo, C., Passalacqua, P., Fiori, A., and Volpi, E.: Prediction capabilities of GeoFlood for the delineation of flood-prone areas: the Tiber River case study, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7591, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7591, 2021.

11:42–11:44
|
EGU21-9118
|
ECS
Stefano Cipollini, Aldo Fiori, and Elena Volpi

In this work, we present a general framework for design and risk assessment of hydraulic structures for water control. The framework relies on a “structure-based approach”, accounting for both the statistical behavior of the hydrological load acting on the river system and the hydraulic response of the structure to the environmental load. This approach allows for the reduction of a multivariate and complex statistical problem to a univariate one, focusing on the damage. The framework is applied to an offline detention basin for flood mitigation based on a general, yet simplified routing model. Furthermore, a real-world case study application is presented, with the specific aim of discussing the role of the design parameters and their effect on the probability distribution of damage. Results show the robustness and the effectiveness of the approach for applications to real cases and provide design guidance for practitioners.

How to cite: Cipollini, S., Fiori, A., and Volpi, E.: Design of offline reservoirs for flood mitigation by using a structure-based risk framework, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9118, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9118, 2021.

Breakout Text Chat Continue
11:44–11:46
|
EGU21-11038
|
ECS
Bianca Bonaccorsi, Tommaso Moramarco, Leonardo Valerio Noto, and Silvia Barbetta

Earthen levees protect flood-prone areas during severe flood events. In most cases, however, flooding is the result of the collapse of the embankments due to the seepage through and under the levee body. The description of the seepage line is difficult mainly because of the uncertainty on the hydraulic parameters, first of all the soil hydraulic conductivity. Barbetta et al. (2017) proposed a practical method for the seepage analysis based on the Marchi’s equation for the estimation of the probability of occurrence of the levee seepage which provides a vulnerability index under the assumption that the groundwater level coincides with the ground. Recently, the method has been tested also considering the groundwater level below the ground pointing out that such a condition has a high impact on the levee vulnerability to seepage. However, it does not consider the interactions between seepage process in the levee body and in the foundation.

In this context, this work proposes a new approach for the analysis of the infiltration line through the body and the foundation, considering a multilayer soil and assuming a different soil hydraulic conductivity for each layer. The new equation is obtained starting from the continuity equation and the flow equation.

The saturation line estimated through the Marchi’s equation and the one derived through the new multilayer model equation are compared. The analysis is first addressed to identify a threshold of the ratio between water head and water table beyond which the Marchi’s equation is no longer applicable. Indeed, the Marchi’s equation is valid when the river water head is lower than the water table. Different values of these two variables are analyzed and a threshold ratio equal to 0.57 is identified.

Furthermore, the levee vulnerability to seepage estimated with the two approaches is compared and the levee is found more vulnerable when the new approach is applied. The results indicate that the difference between the two vulnerability approaches decreases as the distance between the groundwater table and the ground level tends to zero. The proposed approach is an attempt to quantify the seepage probability with more realistic levees characteristics, hydraulic and soil parameters.

 

Barbetta, S., Camici, S., Bertuccioli, P., Palladino, M. R., & Moramarco, T. 2017. Refinement of seepage vulnerability assessment for different flood magnitude in national levee database of Italy. Hydrology Research, 48(3), 763–775. https://doi.org/10.2166/nh.2017.101.

How to cite: Bonaccorsi, B., Moramarco, T., Noto, L. V., and Barbetta, S.: A multilayer soil approach for seepage process analysis in earthen levees, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-11038, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-11038, 2021.

11:46–11:48
|
EGU21-15435
|
ECS
Shaniel Chotkan, Juan Pablo Aguilar-López, Raymond van der Meij, Phil Vardon, Wouter Jan Klerk, and Juan Carlos Chacon Hurtado

During intense periods of drought, the development of cracks is observed in peat and clay dikes. Asset managers of the dikes increase the inspection frequency in times of drought to be able to monitor these cracks. Significant development of the cracks contributes to the development of different failure mechanisms. In this study, the occurrence of the cracks is predicted at a large spatial scale. An inspection database in which the observations from the last three years are stored is used as the basis. The database contains hundreds of observed cracks including the  location and time in which they were observed. The database was extended with attributes such as the precipitation deficit, the peat width at the surface, the orientation of the dike body, the subsidence of the dike body and the soil stiffness. Decision tree algorithms were then used to classify which circumstances will lead to cracks and which circumstances will not. From the resulting decision trees it was deduced that high precipitation deficits, low soil stiffness and the peat width can be used as the main predictors for the occurrence of cracks. Both subsidence of the foundation and the dike body being orientated to the sunny side are also contributors, although less prominent. Time-independent cracking criteria were then used to classify which regions are prone to cracking. Dikes which are rich in peat with a low stiffness were thus highlighted. The Mathews correlation coefficient was used as performance criteria resulting in a 0.3 value for the obtained tree. Application of a random forest increased the coefficient to 0.8. An important conclusion is that proper monitoring of the peat width, soil stiffness and precipitation may result in better asset management.

How to cite: Chotkan, S., Aguilar-López, J. P., van der Meij, R., Vardon, P., Jan Klerk, W., and Chacon Hurtado, J. C.: Predicting drought-induced cracks in dikes with machine learning algorithms, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15435, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15435, 2021.

11:48–11:50
|
EGU21-12223
Simulation of a small scale model of dike susceptible to suffusion
(withdrawn)
Rachel Gelet, Alaa Kodieh, and Didier Marot
11:50–11:52
|
EGU21-14904
|
ECS
Leonardo Duarte Campos and Juan Pablo Aguilar López

Cracks occurring on dike surfaces due to droughts, are a big threat for the safety of flood defence infrastructure as they increase infiltration rates and reduce the resistance to mass rotational failure (slope stability). Hence, an effective and sustainable monitoring system for crack detection is of paramount importance given the increase in frequency of drought events. Conventional methods heavily rely on visual inspections by expert observers, drone technologies survey, or destructive techniques such as sampling and trenching. Most of them result sparse qualitative and labor-intensive assessments. In this project, we aim to develop a method which combines two different sensing techniques —distributed temperature sensing (DTS) and conventional video cameras— for detecting the cracks on the dike surface. In contrast to earlier studies using DTS to measure the temperature changes during high water levels in the riverside slope and to detect seepage changes, we will be measuring the superficial moisture content on the riverside and the landside slopes of the dike, and use it as a proxy for crack detection in combination with the camera images and deep learning techniques. It is expected that by including the DTS measurements, the detection of cracks may outperform the actual methods in an economically and more densely manner along several kilometers of dikes in real time.

How to cite: Duarte Campos, L. and Aguilar López, J. P.: Proof of Concept with Distributed Temperature Sensing for Crack Detection on Dikes, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14904, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14904, 2021.

11:52–11:54
|
EGU21-15294
|
ECS
Md Hamidul Haque, Mushtari Sadia, and Mashiat Mustaq

Floods are natural disasters caused mainly due to heavy or excessive rainfall. They induce massive economic losses in Bangladesh every year. Physically-based flood prediction models have been used over the years where simplified forms of physical laws are used to reduce calculations' complexity. It sometimes leads to oversimplification and inaccuracy in the prediction. Moreover, a physically-based model requires intensive monitoring datasets for calibration, accurate soil properties information, and a heavy computational facility, creating an impediment for quick, economical and precise short-term prediction. Researchers have tried different approaches like empirical data-driven models, especially machine learning-based models, to offer an alternative approach to the physically-based models but focused on developing only one machine learning (ML) technique at a time (i.e., ANN, MLP, etc.). There are many other techniques, algorithms, and models in machine learning (ML) technology that have the potential to be effective and efficient in flood forecasting. In this study, five different machine learning algorithms- exponent back propagation neural network (EBPNN), multilayer perceptron (MLP), support vector regression (SVR), DT Regression (DTR), and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) were used to develop total 180 independent models based on a different combination of time lags for input data and lead time in forecast. Models were developed for Someshwari-Kangsa sub-watershed of Bangladesh's North Central hydrological region with 5772 km2 drainage area. It is also a data-scarce region with only three hydrological and hydro-meteorological stations for the whole sub-watershed. This region mostly suffers extreme meteorological events driven flooding. Therefore, satellite-based precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed data, and observed water level data from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) were used as input and response variables.

For comparison, the accuracy of these models was evaluated using different statistical indices - coefficient of determination, mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean relative error (MRE), explained variance score and normalized centred root mean square error (NCRMSE). Developed models were ranked based on the coefficient of determination (R2) value. All the models performed well with R2 being greater than 0.85 in most cases. Further analysis of the model results showed that most of the models performed well for forecasting 24-hour lead time water level. Models developed using XGBoost algorithm outperformed other models in all metrics. Moreover, each of the algorithms' best-performed models was extended further up to 20 days lead time to generate forecasting horizon. Models demonstrated remarkable consistency in their performance with the coefficient of determination (R2) being greater than 0.70 at 20 days lead-time of forecasting horizon in most cases except the DTR-based model. For 10- and 5-days lead time of forecasting horizon, it was greater than 0.75 and 0.80 respectively, for all the model extended. This study concludes that the machine algorithm-based data-driven model can be a powerful tool for flood forecasting in data-scarce regions with excellent accuracy, quick building and running time, and economic feasibility.

How to cite: Haque, M. H., Sadia, M., and Mustaq, M.: Development of Flood Forecasting System for Someshwari-Kangsa Sub-watershed of Bangladesh-India Using Different Machine Learning Techniques, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15294, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15294, 2021.

11:54–11:56
|
EGU21-15322
|
ECS
Mengke Ni and Tohid Erfani

Temporary flood protective defences (TFPD) are supplementary to permanent engineering solutions. In a flood event, asset managers are faced with a challenging task of deploying large-scale temporary defences at multiple locations. As the performance of temporary defences is sensitive to various uncertain weather condition factors, it is difficult to fix a single specific deployment plan as the optimal solution. This, moreover, leads to insufficient and/or underused defences on flood-affected locations. This paper describes a state-based (SB) mathematical modelling approach to deal with above challenge by adapting TFPD strategies consistently to short-term future as they unfold. We employ multistage stochastic and scenario tree to identify a set of alternative SB optimal paths for deployment planning. The proposed model is applied to nine flood-affected locations in Carlisle, northwest England. The results indicate that the inclusion of SB path-dependant solution strategy are beneficial for the flood asset manager faced with making short-term deployment planning decisions.

How to cite: Ni, M. and Erfani, T.: A state-based and optimal path dependant short-term flood planning , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15322, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15322, 2021.

11:56–11:58
|
EGU21-12779
|
Highlight
Joshua Ahmed, Robert E. Thomas, Joshua Johnson, Edward Rollason, Christopher Skinner, and Daniel R. Parsons

Flooding presents a serious socioeconomic challenge to riverine communities across the world, impacting >300 million people each year and causing loss of life, damage to infrastructure, long-term mental and physical health problems, and threatening food security. Across many parts of the globe, including north-west Europe, climate change is projected to increase the magnitude, frequency, and intensity of rainfall events, thus exacerbating future flood risk and increasing the demand for flood alleviation schemes. Historically, flood prevention strategies have focused on constructing hard defences that restrict the overbank flows and aim to convey them downstream. However, as floods become larger and more difficult to predict, the construction of ever-higher defences becomes unfeasible. As such, natural-based solutions are being adopted as a more cost-effective and sustainable approach to managing flood waters through upland attenuation in leaky dams and offline storage in reservoirs in the lowlands. Here we demonstrate the feasibility and efficacy of using agricultural soils as “environmental sponges” to retain moisture and reduce downstream flood peaks in a heavily-managed lowland catchment. We use combined field, laboratory, and modelling approach to quantify how increases in soil organic matter – introduced through cover crops – can increase soil moisture retention at the field scale and perform groundwater and catchment modelling scenarios to assess how these changes can be extrapolated up to the catchment scale and used to forecast changes in downstream flood risk across a suite of future hydro-climatic and soil management scenarios.

How to cite: Ahmed, J., Thomas, R. E., Johnson, J., Rollason, E., Skinner, C., and Parsons, D. R.: Can soils act as environmental sponges to help reduce flooding?, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12779, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12779, 2021.

11:58–12:00
|
EGU21-15210
Luis Germano Biolchi, Silvia Unguendoli, Lidia Bressan, Beatrice Maria Sole Giambastiani, and Andrea Valentini

The low lying and sandy coastal areas of the Emilia-Romagna region are heavily threatened by sea storms, often leading to flooding and coastal erosion events with severe impacts on citizens’ quality of life, damages to the cultural heritage and effects on economic activities (e.g. aquaculture, fisheries, tourism, beach facilities). Climate change projections reinforce the need of strategies and tools to prevent damages and promptly react to extreme events. In this context and in the framework of non-structural mitigation measures, the Hydro-Meteo-Climate Service of Arpae Emilia-Romagna (Arpae-SIMC) developed and operationally manages a Coastal Early Warning System (EWS) for the Emilia-Romagna Region (Northeast Italy).

The EWS was developed during the EU Project FP7-MICORE and it is a state-of-the-art coastal forecasting system that follows a chain of operational numerical models: the meteorological model COSMO, the wave model SWAN-MEDITARE, the ocean model AdriaROMS, and the morphodynamic model XBeach. The latter is currently implemented on a series of cross-shore beach profiles covering eight locations distributed along the Emilia-Romagna shore. Deterministic daily forecasts (72-hours) are generated and Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) used to assess sea-storm induced coastal risk along the region’s littoral (geo.regione.emilia-romagna.it/schede/ews). 

It is widely known that among the limitations of deterministic approaches, the lack of uncertainty estimation is often problematic as decision-makers might be misled if the only forecast available underestimates (or overestimates) incoming conditions. Hence, following the success of probabilistic forecasting in meteorological applications, storm surge EWSs following ensemble frameworks have been recently developed, allowing for more information available to sustain the decision-making process. Towards the new paradigm change, one of the foreseen outputs of the European Interreg Italy-Croatia CBC Programme project Strategic development of flood management (STREAM) involves the development of a “probabilistic EWS for coastal risk implemented and tested on at least one location along the Emilia-Romagna Coast”. 

The initial implementation of the (semi-)probabilistic framework benefits from the EU ADRION I-STORMS (Integrated Sea Storm Management Strategies) project outcomes, in which wave and sea level multi-model ensembles were developed for the Adriatic Sea giving origin to the Transnational Multi-Model Ensemble (TMES). The TMES was made available as one of the six Integrated Web System (IWS) components, combining five wave and six sea level forecasting systems as means to provide 48-hour forecasts in terms of sea level and wave characteristics (Hs, Tm and Dm). Ensemble mean and standard deviation (SD) are calculated based on different forecasting systems’ results. In the initial approach, four TMES combinations have been tested as XBeach forcing: the TMES mean; the mean minus one SD; the mean plus one SD; the mean plus two SDs. Two months were analyzed together with the already implemented deterministic system for two profiles along the region’s coast.

The methodology followed for the test period will be shown as well as the results. Furthermore, the methodology under development will be also shown as means to enhance the discussion involving storm surge ensemble applications.

How to cite: Germano Biolchi, L., Unguendoli, S., Bressan, L., Giambastiani, B. M. S., and Valentini, A.: A (semi-)probabilistic storm surge EWS implementation for the Emilia-Romagna region (Italy), EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15210, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15210, 2021.

12:00–12:30