NH9.8

Flood damage assessment is a crucial component of any decision-making process on flood risk management and mitigation; for this reason, reliable tools for flood damage estimation are required, for all the categories of exposed elements. Despite networks can suffer high losses in case of flood, and in comparison with other exposed items, flood damage modelling to infrastructures is still a challenging task. This is due, on the one hand, to the complexity of networks as well as of their interconnections; on the other hand, to the lack of knowledge and data to investigate damage mechanisms and to calibrate and validate damage models. Grounding on the investigation of the state of art, this contribution presents a conceptualization of flood damage to power grids. The ultimate objective of the conceptual model is to be an operative tool in support of more comprehensive and reliable flood damage assessments to power grids, highlighting: (i) the different components of the damage (i.e. direct, indirect, and systemic, meaning damage due to the interdependencies among power grids and residential, commercial, industrial and other infrastructure sectors), (ii) their interconnections, (iii) the hazard, exposure and vulnerability variables on which they depend, (iv) the temporal and spatial scales for their assessment. The development of the model highlighted, on the one hand, the importance of dividing damage assessment in two steps: the estimation of damage in quantitative/physical units and the estimation of the consequent economic losses. On the other hand, the variety of damage mechanisms and cascading effects shaping the final damage figure arises, asking for an interdisciplinary and multi-scale evaluation approach. The development of the conceptual model is the first step of a PhD research on the development of flood damage models for infrastructures. Next steps will validate the model in real case studies and evaluate how the different damage components could be investigated in the Italian context.

How to cite: Asaridis, P., Molinari, D., and Ballio, F.: A conceptual model for the estimation of flood damage to power grids, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2721, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2721, 2021.

In flood risk analysis it is a key principle to predetermine consequences of flooding to assets, people and infrastructures. Damages to critical infrastructures are not restricted to the flooded area. The effects of directly affected objects cascades to other infrastructures, which are not directly affected by a flood. Modelling critical infrastructure networks is one possible answer to the question ‘how to include indirect and direct impacts to critical infrastructures?’.

Critical infrastructures are connected in very complex networks. The modelling of those networks has been a basis for different purposes (Ouyang, 2014). Thus, it is a challenge to determine the right method to model a critical infrastructure network. For this example, a network-based and topology-based method will be applied (Pant et al., 2018). The basic model elements are points, connectors and polygons which are utilized to resemble the critical infrastructure network characteristics.

The objective of this model is to complement the state-of-the-art flood risk analysis with a quantitative analysis of critical infrastructure damages and disruptions for people and infrastructures. These results deliver an extended basis to differentiate the flood risk assessment and to derive measures for flood risk mitigation strategies. From a technical point of view, a critical infrastructure damage analysis will be integrated into the tool ProMaIDes (Bachmann, 2020), a free software for a risk-based evaluation of flood risk mitigation measures.

The data on critical infrastructure cascades and their potential linkages is scars but necessary for an actionable modelling. The CIrcle method from Deltares delivers a method for a workshop that has proven to deliver applicable datasets for identifying and connecting infrastructures on basis of cascading effects (de Bruijn et al., 2019). The data gained from CIrcle workshops will be one compound for the critical infrastructure network model.

Acknowledgment: This work is part of the BMBF-IKARIM funded project PARADes (Participatory assessment of flood related disaster prevention and development of an adapted coping system in Ghana).

Bachmann, D. (2020). ProMaIDeS - Knowledge Base. https://promaides.myjetbrains.com

de Bruijn, K. M., Maran, C., Zygnerski, M., Jurado, J., Burzel, A., Jeuken, C., & Obeysekera, J. (2019). Flood resilience of critical infrastructure: Approach and method applied to Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Water (Switzerland), 11(3). https://doi.org/10.3390/w11030517

Ouyang, M. (2014). Review on modeling and simulation of interdependent critical infrastructure systems. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 121, 43–60. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2013.06.040

Pant, R., Thacker, S., Hall, J. W., Alderson, D., & Barr, S. (2018). Critical infrastructure impact assessment due to flood exposure. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 11(1), 22–33. https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12288

How to cite: Schotten, R. and Bachmann, D.: Conceptualization of a Critical Infrastructure Network – Model for Flood Risk Assessments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-922, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-922, 2021.

Reliable port infrastructure is essential for the facilitation of international trade flows. Disruptions to port infrastructure can result in trade bottlenecks, in particular if multiple key ports are affected simultaneously due to natural disasters with large spatial footprints such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones (Verschuur et al. 2019). For instance, Hurricane Katrina (2005) disrupted port operations in multiple ports in New Orleans, which transport around 45% of the country’s food and farm products, resulting in more than USD800 million export losses and price spikes of food products (Trepte and Rice, 2014). In order to improve the resilience of the transport and supply-chain network, the risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks need to be quantified on global scale. However, to date, the risk of single and multiple port failures due to large-scale natural disasters, and the resulting consequences, has not yet been explored.

Here, we present a global analysis of the risk of simultaneous port disruptions due to tropical cyclones and the associated risk of bottlenecks in the national and global maritime trade network. To do this, we have combined a new global dataset on the port-to-port trade network with 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks (Bloemendaal et al., 2020) and an impact-module that estimates the duration of the port disruption as a function of cyclone wind speed. We show how certain countries and specific economic sectors within countries are at risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks, mainly due to the concentration of trade in a few key ports that are geographically clustered.

These results can be used to stress test the global maritime transport network and inform strategies to improve supply-chain resilience (e.g. diversification of transport and import). Moreover, it can support port planning on a national level to make strategic investments to reduce the risk of trade bottlenecks or to design post-disaster emergency response strategies (e.g. rerouting strategies to alternative ports).

How to cite: Verschuur, J., Koks, E., and Hall, J.: The risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks due to simultaneous port disruptions, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-193, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-193, 2021.

River migration represents a geomorphic hazard at sites of critical bridge infrastructure, particularly in rivers where migration rates are high, as in the tropics. In the Philippines, where exposure to flooding and geomorphic risk are considerable, the recent expansion of infrastructural developments warrants quantification of river migration in the vicinity of bridge assets. We analysed publicly available bridge inventory data from the Philippines Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and leveraged freely available satellite imagery in Google Earth Engine (GEE) to assess river migration. Specifically, we extracted active river channel masks of the bankfull extent (including the wetted channel and unvegetated, alluvial deposits) from Landsat products (Landsat 5, 7 and 8) using multi-spectral indices, before identifying river planform adjustments over decadal and engineering (30-year) timescales. For 74 bridges, we calculated similarity coefficients (Jaccard index) to indicate planform (dis)similarity and quantified changes in river channel width using RivWidthCloud.

Monitoring revealed the diversity of river planform adjustment at bridges in the Philippines (including channel migration, contraction, expansion and avulsion). The mean Jaccard index over decadal (0.65) and engineering (0.50) timescales indicated considerable planform adjustment throughout the national-scale inventory. However, planform adjustment and morphological behaviour varied between bridges. Some inventoried bridges were characterised by substantial planform adjustment and river migration, with maximum active channel contraction and expansion over decadal timescales equal to approximately 25% of the active channel width. This represents considerable lateral adjustment and when left unmanaged could pose a substantial geomorphic hazard. However, for other inventoried bridges the planform remained approximately stable and changes in channel width were limited. We suggest that multi-temporal analysis from satellite remote sensing offers a low-cost approach for monitoring the relative risk of river migration at critical bridge infrastructure; the approach can be extended to include other critical infrastructure adjacent to rivers (e.g., road, rail pipelines) and extended elsewhere to other dynamic riverine settings.

How to cite: Boothroyd, R., Williams, R., Hoey, T., Tolentino, P., and Yang, X.: National-scale assessment of river migration at critical bridge infrastructure in the Philippines using Google Earth Engine, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3049, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3049, 2021.

Coseismic surface displacements, soil liquefaction effects, and induced landslides are among the most critical issues to be accounted for evaluating the exposure and vulnerability of pipelines. However, tectonic plates and crustal blocks are in an almost continuous relative movement, most pronounced in the narrow zones between tectonic plates, where we observe differential velocities from a few mm to some cm per year. Hence, even without the occurrence of strong earthquakes, a pipeline crossing active tectonic plate boundaries must cope during its lifetime, with remarkable differential motions along its length, due to the interseismic elastic strain-accumulation within the upper crust. Such movements, leading to permanent ground deformation, can distress the pipe and cause operation interruptions, while the anchor points can result in local stress concentrations.

Here, we analyze the Southern Gas Corridor’s final part, a route highlighted in the European Energy Security and Energy Union Strategies. This route, which will be occupied by the TransAdriatic pipeline, crosses one of the world’s most seismically active zones. Our study aims to identify areas where critical differential motions could be expected along the route over the nominal 50-years pipeline-lifespan. We analyzed the available GNSS data and interpolated the sparsely available velocity vectors to have regular information along the pipeline path in two ways. In the first, we considered the region as a continuum; in the second, we applied an original blocky approach. We subdivided the path into segments, characterized by a relatively homogenous deformational behavior, or a specific tectonic setting, independently upon the neighboring ones. We compared the results of the two methods with the input observation. We calculated the maximum displacement that would cumulate in the next 50 years and the differential displacements that could cause possible critical bending to the pipeline structure. The approach followed in this research could be applied to other infrastructures to identify the segments prone to localized deformation because of interseismic tectonic loading.

The work was done within the Trans Adriatic Pipeline Seismological Investigation RfP Seismic Hazard Assessment Evaluation for E.ON New Build & Technology GmbH. We thank Dario Slejko and the other project partners for valuable information, data, advice, and fruitful discussions. For our GIS-based strain velocity system, we used Quantum GIS (QGIS), a user-friendly Open Source Geographic Information System (GIS) licensed under the GNU General Public License (https://hub.qgis.org/). For the interpolation, we used the function TriScatteredInterp from MATLAB^® library (MATLAB R2011a).

How to cite: Rossi, G., Caputo, R., Zuliani, D., Fabris, P., Maggini, M., and Karvelis, P.: Analysis of GNSS data along the Southern Gas Corridor and estimate of the expected slowly-cumulating tectonic displacements, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10111, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10111, 2021.

The hiking infrastructure of trails and huts is a strong asset for summer tourism in the Austrian Alps. However, this infrastructure is prone to different types of mass movements, such as rainfall-induced shallow landslides, debris flows and rockfalls, that potentially block the access to mountain huts and hiking routes for weeks or even months. Thus, alpine infrastructure management has an increased need for information about mass movements that affect trails.

The project MontEO ("The impact of mass movements on alpine trails and huts assessed by Earth observation (EO) data") aims for a better understanding of the diverse impacts of mass movements on the alpine infrastructure and the related efforts for infrastructure management and maintenance, by mass movement mapping and susceptibility modelling. We performed a user requirements analysis that identified relevant stakeholders and pinpointed both user needs and requirements for information about mass movement impact on alpine infrastructure. Semi-structured interviews with trail keepers and other stakeholders revealed information about the relevance of the topic for the respective organisation, the role of the interviewed person within the organisation and the experiences and tasks that relate to mass movements.

Our preliminary results identified sections of alpine associations, tourism associations, and alpine farmers as the main stakeholders that assume responsibility for operating the trails. The interviews with trail keepers, alpine association officials and professional trail builders indicated that they consider information on mass movement particularly valuable for mid- to long-term planning of maintenance efforts and revisions, as well as for the construction of new and the re-location of existing trails. Damage due to mass movements is mainly relevant in high alpine regions and in locations where terrain and environmental conditions favour them. An example of how mass movements can affect infrastructure is a rockfall damaging safety ropes and feeding a scree that becomes a source for debris flows covering the existing path. Resulting maintenance efforts include the restoration of a debris-covered trail and the re-installation of safety ropes along the trail by a skilled builder with heavy equipment. If situated in a heavily affected region, the frequency of damage from mass movements may render the trail too costly to maintain. Either it needs to be relocated to a new route in less landslide-prone terrain or it has to be given up entirely.

Currently, we are in the process of mapping mass movements with optical and radar satellite data in four Austrian study areas. Combining the mass movement mapping and susceptibility modelling results with estimated efforts for trail maintenance will enable the detailed assessment of the mass movement impact for an entire area of responsibility of the section of an alpine association. If the validation with stakeholders proves that the impact assessment can be used in strategic trail management or the planning of maintenance activities, the MontEO project will result in a safer alpine infrastructure and an increased value for the tourism industry.

How to cite: Albrecht, F., Hölbling, D., Abad, L., Dabiri, Z., Scheierl, G., Hipp, T., Resch, H., Resch, G., and Reischenböck, G.: Qualitative analysis of the impact of mass movements on the alpine hiking infrastructure, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7718, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7718, 2021.

Landslides threaten transportation ways infrastructure, ex. after deforestation. Geotextiles on mountain sites were observed in France, including at the COST action TU1401 "Renewable energy and landscape quality"  (COST RELY) final conference which at the UNESCO geoheritage of Chaîne des Puys (Pidon et al, 2016), presented in the EGU geoheritage sessions as well. This paper presents research on biodegradable geosynthetics which are also able to stabilise ground in a different large scale setting after laboratory setting. The large scale setting is stabilisation of flying ash at the thermo power of Mintia and Doicesti in Romania (Siminea and Bostenaru, 2008, Bostenaru et al, 2010), right before closure. Nature based solutions gained attention in the last decade and the blue-green infrastructure approach is reevaluated in this presentation. Preda (2011) dealt with the degradation of soil in these two locations. Pleasea (2011) dealt with how to reactivate the industrial rural area of the Doicesti thermal power as alternative to demolition, which however happened late 2020. The location of both Mintia and Doicesti is examined also from the point of view of the vicinities (the former court archeological remains in Doicesti and the neighbouring Targoviste and the castle ruins and Modernist architecture in Deva near which Mintia is). Another reevaluation is the turn towards renewable energy (see COST RELY). With this turn thermopower, one of the most important in Romania along with hydropower which has been examined in the action, needs to be rethought. The IBA Emscher Park (Shaw, 2002, Bostenaru, 2007) in the Ruhr area in Germany was a participative large scale retrofit in the 1990s of a former coal mining region and therefore the high tech renewable energy among converted industry buildings, some of which UNESCO heritage. Experience in urban renewal of industrial buildings in Germany will be compared with success stories in water industry connected to slope greening at the water works in Suceava.

References:

Bostenaru Dan, M. (2007): Von den Partizipationsmodellen der 70er Jahre zu Kommunikationsformen Ende des XXten Jahrhunderts in Architektur und Städtebau, Cuvillier, Göttingen.

Bostenaru M., Siminea I., Bostenaru Dan M. (2010): Use of geotextiles for mitigation of the effects of man-made hazards such as greening of waste deposits in frame of the conversion of industrial areas, Geophysical Research Abstracts 12, EGU2010-13293.

Pidon A., Niemiec D., Sabourault P.  (2016): Mise en sécurité d’un dépôt de résidus detraitement de minerai de plomb-argentifère, Pontgibaud, Auvergne. Journées Nationalesde Géotechnique et de Géologie de l’Ingénieur, Nancy, France

Plesea, S. M. (2019): Potentialul zonelor industriale abandonate in context rural, master dissertation, "Ion Mincu" University of Architecture and Urbanism.

Preda C.-E. (2011): Impactul poluantilor produsi de termocentralele pe carbune asupra solurilor. Studii de caz: termocentralele Doicesti, Rovinari si Mintia, doctoral dissertation, University of Bucharest, Faculty of Geography.

Siminea I., Bostenaru M. (2008): Biodegradable geocomposite a material for the future,to be applied in slope protection and recovery of waste dumps, Scientific Bulletin of“Politehnica” University of Timişoara, Romania Transactions on Hydrotehnics 53/67(1), pp. 75-78

Shaw, R. (2002): The International Building Exhibition (IBA) Emscher Park, Germany:A Model for Sustainable Restructuring?, European Planning Studies, 10(1), pp. 77-97

How to cite: Bostenaru, M. and Bostenaru Dan, M.: Nature based solutions against environmental risks: biodegradable geosynthetics, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1075, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1075, 2021.

Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GICs) are the result of rapid variations in the Earth's geomagnetic field and of the finite conductivity of the Earth. Along grounded conducting structures such as the power grids, the induced electric field drives electric currents in closed circuits. Extreme values of GICs can be a threat to the normal operation of the power system. So, there is an increasing interest in the study of the GICs’ risk and the first step to take is the numerical modelling. In order to model GICs, different factors/parameters must be considered, as the distribution of conductivity, laterally and in depth and characteristics of the different components of the network. These include the values of the different resistances in the power network, the types of transformers and also the transmission path for the GICs. Shield wires represent possible paths for GIC currents. In this study the influence of shield wires on GICs in power systems is modelled. Tests were done using realistic values for the circuit parameters provided by the Portuguese high voltage power network company (REN).

The MAG-GIC (Geomagnetically induced currents in Portugal mainland) project has already produced GIC simulations for the South of Portugal. However, there are still no direct records of GICs in the electrical transmission network to validate that model. This study also encompasses the task of producing a measuring instrument to monitor GICs in the neutral of a given transformer. Such an instrument can provide for the measurement and recording of quasi-DC currents with Hall current sensors, with high resolution. It is targeted to operate remotely over a time interval of several months while being minimally invasive to the power transformer (PT). The system relies on LEM high sensitivity closed loop Hall effect current sensors and it is built over a Raspberry Pi 4 Model B platform with a high resolution digitizer (24 bits) expansion board (Waveshare AD/DA). The system also includes temperature monitoring for offset correction. Recorded data are locally stored on a database (InfluxDB) and a wifi interface allows rapid long term trend visualization through a customized dashboard (Grafana).

How to cite: Santos, R., Cardoso, J., Pais, M. A., Silva, M., Alves Ribeiro, J., and J. G. Pinheiro, F.: Shield wires effect on GICs in Portuguese power network and design of an instrument to monitor GICs in the transformer neutrals, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14663, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14663, 2021.

Critical infrastructures (CIs) such as powerlines, road & rail transport, and telecommunications are networked systems, through which disruptions, for instance from natural hazards, may propagate far beyond their initial incidence.

There is, however, a gap when it comes to identifying how CIs interdepend on each other (such as water for cooling power generators, and electricity for powering water pumps), and how their joint system-of-systems (SOS) character can amplify possible consequences. Anecdotal evidence on such behaviour is frequently derived from artificially generated or locally constrained cases with few CIs under consideration. A full picture of CISOS risks throughout greater geographies is absent.

This research project aims to contribute to a more consistent view on natural hazard risks from CI interdependencies by

• systematically identifying and deriving interdependency heuristics between a range of CIs,
• transferring those interdependency heuristics to a network model based on real-world, spatially explicit open-source CI data,
• combining this CISOS network layer with an open-source global risk modelling platform, CLIMADA (Aznar-Siguan, G. & Bresch, D. N. 2019), to allow for globally consistent impact calculations from a range of natural hazard scenarios.

I will give first insights on the trade-offs between identified CI interdependencies, real-world data constraints and generalisability of a CISOS modelling approach across national scales. I will also present opportunities from combining the networked layer with the risk modelling platform CLIMADA for studying CISOS disruptions in a multi-hazard space, and possible extensions to social impacts and basic service disruptions.

How to cite: Mühlhofer, E., Bresch, D. N., and Koks, E.: Critical infrastructures in a multi-hazard environment: identifying globally consistent heuristics to model interdependencies, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-945, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-945, 2021.

Critical infrastructure (CI) is fundamental for the functioning of a society and forms the backbone for socio-economic development. Natural hazards, however, pose a major threat to CI. The destruction of CI, and the disruption of essential services they provide may hamper societies and economies. Moreover, the overall risk for CI is expected to rise. This is due climate change (i.e. intensification and more frequent hazards), and socio-economic development (i.e. increase in the amount and value of CI).

Building sustainable and resilient infrastructure is a key to reducing the impacts of natural hazards and climate change on society. However, an in-depth knowledge of the global CI that is directly at risk for natural hazards is still lacking. The development of a harmonized dataset integrating the geospatial locations of the main CI systems at a global scale will aid to our knowledge on the CI that is exposed and at risk for natural hazards.

We present a first-of-its-kind globally consistent spatial dataset for the representation of CI. In this study, an index to express the spatial intensity of CI at the global scale is developed: the Critical Infrastructure System Index (CISI). The CISI is expressed in a dimensionless value ranging between 0 (being no CI intensity) and 1 (being highest CI intensity). The CISI aggregates high resolution spatial information of CI based on OpenStreetMap (OSM) data. For the development of this index, a total of 34 CI types (e.g. primary roads, waste-water plants and hospitals) are defined and categorized under seven overarching CI systems: transportation, energy, tele-communication, waste, water, health and education. Spatial data on these CI types are extracted by using a selection of 78 OSM tags. The detailed spatial data is rasterized into a harmonized and consistent dataset with a resolution of 0.1x0.1 degrees.

This novel global dataset will be a valuable starting point for policy makers, planners, and researchers in several fields. The dataset can be deployed as a tool to gain insights in the current landscape of the CI network, to identify hotspots of CI, and to gain exposure information for risk assessments. We use open data hosted by OSM, and provide code for further use and development. In this study, we demonstrate the database and CISI at a global scale, but the publicly accessible code can also be used to further develop the dataset with latest releases of data on CI provided by OSM as well as other (open) sources for any location and any resolution.

How to cite: Nirandjan, S., Koks, E., Ward, P., and Aerts, J.: Gridded Harmonized Dataset for the Spatial Location of the Global Critical Infrastructure Network, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8197, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8197, 2021.