Flash floods and rainfall induced hydro-geomorphic hazards: from observation to forecasting and warning
Heavy precipitation events in small and medium size catchments can trigger flash floods, which are characterized by very short response times and high specific peak discharges, and often occur in ungauged basins. Under appropriate geomorphological conditions, such rainstorms also cause debris flows or shallow landslides mobilizing large amounts of unconsolidated material. Although significant progress has been made in the management of these different hazards and related risks, they remain poorly understood and their predictability is affected by large uncertainties, due to the fast evolution of triggering rainfall events, the lack of appropriate observations, the high variabilities and non-linearities in the physical processes, and the high variability and complexity of societal vulnerability.
This session aims to illustrate current advances in monitoring, understanding, modelling, and forecasting flash floods and associated geomorphic processes, and documenting and anticipating the societal impacts and social responses.
Contributions on the following scientific themes are more specifically expected:
- Development of new measurement techniques adapted to flash floods and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards monitoring (including in-situ sensors and remote sensing data, such as weather radar, and lightning ..), and quantification of the associated uncertainties,
- Identification of processes leading to flash flood events and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards from data analysis and/or modelling, and of their characteristic space-time scales,
- Possible evolutions in hazard characteristics and frequency related to climate change,
- Development of short-range (0-6h) rainfall forecasting techniques adapted to heavy precipitation events, and representation of associated uncertainties,
- Development of hydro-meteorological forecasting chains for predicting flash floods and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards in gauged and ungauged basins,
- Development of inundation mapping approaches specifically designed for an integration in flash floods monitoring or forecasting chains,
- Use of new criteria such as specific “hydrological signatures” (high water marks, impacts and damages, ..) or other proxy data for model and forecast evaluation,
- Observation, understanding and prediction of the societal vulnerability and social responses to flash floods and/or associated hydro-geomorphic hazards.
Heavy precipitation events in small and medium size catchments can trigger flash floods, which are characterized by very short response times and high specific peak discharges, and often occur in ungauged basins. Under appropriate geomorphological conditions, such rainstorms also cause debris flows or shallow landslides mobilizing large amounts of unconsolidated material. Although significant progress has been made in the management of these different hazards and related risks, they remain poorly understood and their predictability is affected by large uncertainties, due to the fast evolution of triggering rainfall events, the lack of appropriate observations, the high variabilities and non-linearities in the physical processes, and the high variability and complexity of societal vulnerability.
This session aims to illustrate current advances in monitoring, understanding, modelling, and forecasting flash floods and associated geomorphic processes, and documenting and anticipating the societal impacts and social responses.
Contributions on the following scientific themes are more specifically expected:
- Development of new measurement techniques adapted to flash floods and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards monitoring (including in-situ sensors and remote sensing data, such as weather radar, and lightning ..), and quantification of the associated uncertainties,
- Identification of processes leading to flash flood events and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards from data analysis and/or modelling, and of their characteristic space-time scales,
- Possible evolutions in hazard characteristics and frequency related to climate change,
- Development of short-range (0-6h) rainfall forecasting techniques adapted to heavy precipitation events, and representation of associated uncertainties,
- Development of hydro-meteorological forecasting chains for predicting flash floods and/or rainfall-induced geomorphic hazards in gauged and ungauged basins,
- Development of inundation mapping approaches specifically designed for an integration in flash floods monitoring or forecasting chains,
- Use of new criteria such as specific “hydrological signatures” (high water marks, impacts and damages, ..) or other proxy data for model and forecast evaluation,
- Observation, understanding and prediction of the societal vulnerability and social responses to flash floods and/or associated hydro-geomorphic hazards.
