The solar wind is an uninterrupted flow of highly ionised plasma that fills the heliosphere and is crossed by strong transient perturbations such as coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and (corotating) stream interaction regions (SIRs). These phenomena are capable of driving large disturbances at Earth as well as at the other planets. Remote-sensing observations from multiple vantage points, in-situ measurements from multiple well-separated locations, and novel modelling efforts have been employed systematically to study the properties of the solar wind plasma and of solar transients in general, from their formation to their arrival at different in-situ locations. However, despite the number of past and current spacecraft missions distributed throughout the heliosphere, it is still difficult to fully understand the properties of these phenomena, including their 3D structure (both global and local) and their evolution with heliocentric distance.
Studies of the ambient solar wind and its transient phenomena from their origin (the Sun) through their interplanetary journey are possible thanks to remote-sensing and in-situ observational data and models. From an observational perspective, for example, the recently launched Parker Solar Probe, BepiColombo, and Solar Orbiter have significantly increased the amount of available spacecraft in the inner heliosphere. From a modelling perspective, the recent years have seen an increase in both coronal and heliospheric models that operate in different regimes and dimensions. All these aspects will provide us with the perfect opportunity to test, validate, and refine the current knowledge of the solar wind and its transient phenomena and their interactions at different heliocentric distances. Accordingly, the aim of this session is to showcase the latest observational and modelling efforts regarding the origin and evolution of the solar wind, CMEs, and SIRs during their propagation throughout the heliosphere as seen from multiple vantage points, and to foresee future developments.
vPICO presentations: Mon, 26 Apr
Solar wind formation can be separated into three physical steps – source, release, and acceleration – that each leave distinct observational signatures on plasma parcels. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model driven by Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) time-dependent photospheric field maps now has the ability to connect in situ observations more rigorously to their precise source at the Sun, allowing us to investigate the physical processes involved in solar wind formation. In this talk, I will highlight my PhD dissertation research in which we use the ADAPT-WSA model to either characterize the solar wind emerging from specific sources, or investigate the formation process of various solar wind populations. In the first study, we test the well-known inverse relationship between expansion factor (fs) and observed solar wind speed (vobs) for solar wind that emerges from a large sampling of pseudostreamers, to investigate if field line expansion plays a physical role in accelerating the solar wind from this source region. We find that there is no correlation between fs and vobs at pseudostreamer cusps. In the second study, we determine the source locations of the first identified quasiperiodic density structures (PDSs) inside 0.6 au. Our modeling provides confirmation of these events forming via magnetic reconnection both near to and far from the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) – a direct test of the Separatrix-web (S-web) theory of slow solar wind formation. In the final study, we use our methodology to identify the source regions of the first observations from the Parker Solar Probe (PSP) mission. Our modeling enabled us to characterize the closest to the Sun observed coronal mass ejection (CME) to date as a streamer blowout. We close with future ways that ADAPT-WSA can be used to test outstanding questions of solar wind formation.
How to cite: Wallace, S., Viall, N. M., and Arge, C. N.: Understanding Solar Wind Formation by Identifying the Origins of In Situ Observations , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6200, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6200, 2021.
To date, the inner boundary conditions for solar wind models are either directly or indirectly based on magnetic field extrapolation models of the photosphere. Furthermore, between the photosphere and Earth, there are no other direct empirical constraints on models. New breakthroughs in coronal rotation tomography, applied to coronagraph observations, allow maps of the coronal electron density to be made in the heliocentric height range 4-12 solar radii (Rs). We show that these maps (i) give a new empirical boundary condition for solar wind structure at a height where the coronal magnetic field has become radial, thus avoiding the need to model the complex inner coronal magnetic field, and (ii) give accurate rotation rates for the corona, of crucial importance to the accuracy of solar wind models and forecasts.
How to cite: Morgan, H.: Empirical inner boundary conditions and rotation rates for solar wind models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-782, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-782, 2021.
In this work, the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) technique is presented as an alternative method to assess the performance of modeled solar wind time series at Earth (or at any other point in the heliosphere). This method can quantify how similar two time series are by providing a temporal alignment between them, in an optimal way and under certain restrictions. It eventually estimates the optimal alignment between an observed and a modeled series, which we call the warping path, by providing a single number, the so-called DTW cost. A description on the reasons why DTW should be applied as a metric for the assessment of solar wind time series, is presented. Furthermore, examples on how exactly the technique is applied to our modeled solar wind datasets with EUHFORIA, are shown and discussed.
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870437 (SafeSpace).
How to cite: Samara, E., Chane, E., Laperre, B., Verbeke, C., Temmer, M., Rodriguez, L., Magdalenic, J., and Poedts, S.: The Dynamic Time Warping as a means to assess modeled solar wind time series, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12459, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12459, 2021.
The long-term behaviour of the Solar wind and its impact on the Earth are of paramount importance to understand the framework of the strong transient perturbations (CMEs, SIRs). Solar variability related to its magnetic activity can be quantified by using synthetic indices (e.g. sunspots number) or physical ones (e.g. chromospheric proxies). In order to connect the long-term solar activity variations to solar wind properties, we use Ca II K index and solar wind OMNI data in the time interval between 1965 and 2019, which almost entirely cover the last 5 solar cycles. A time lag in the correlation between the parameters is found. This time shift seems to show a temporal evolution over the different solar cycles.
How to cite: Giovannelli, L., Reda, R., Alberti, T., Berrilli, F., Cantoresi, M., Del Moro, D., Giobbi, P., and Penza, V.: Long-term correlations in solar proxies and solar wind parameters, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-7536, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-7536, 2021.
In this study we present a method for forecasting the ambient solar wind at L1 from coronal magnetic models. Ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve through the heliosphere before reaching Earth, and accurately modelling and forecasting the ambient solar wind flow is therefore imperative to space weather awareness. We describe a novel machine learning approach in which solutions from models of the solar corona based on 12 different ADAPT magnetic maps are used to output the solar wind conditions some days later at the Earth. A feature analysis is carried out to determine which input variables are most important. The results of the forecasting model are compared to observations and existing models for one whole solar cycle in a comprehensive validation analysis. We find that the new model outperforms existing models and 27-day persistence in almost all metrics. The final model discussed here represents an extremely fast, well-validated and open-source approach to the forecasting of ambient solar wind at Earth, and is specifically well-suited for ensemble modelling or for application with other coronal models.
How to cite: Bailey, R., Reiss, M. A., Möstl, C., Arge, C. N., Henney, C., Owens, M., Amerstorfer, U., Amerstorfer, T., Weiss, A., and Hinterreiter, J.: Using Gradient Boosting Regressors to forecast the ambient solar wind from coronal magnetic models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15803, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15803, 2021.
We use the multi-year open acees database of current sheets identified at 1 AU with the one-second resolution from ACE data (https://csdb.izmiran.ru ) to study properties of current sheets in the solar wind. We find that the CS daily rate (the number of CSs per day) R correlates with the solar wind temperature T rather than with the solar wind speed V and is proportional to the sum of the kinetic and thermal energy density. The main statistical results preliminary obtained in the study are as follows:
- There is clustering of CSs.
- Maxima of R are associated with stream/corotating interaction regions (SIRs/CIRs) and interplanetary mass ejection (ICME) sheaths.
- On average, one-three thousands of CSs are detected daily at the Earth’s orbit. The best-fit parameter is (V 2 (N+5 N ' ) + 10( N+ N ' )T )/5000 if V is given in km/s, T - in K, N is given in cm-3, and N ' =2 cm-3 is the background level of the solar wind density. The correlation coefficient between the parameter and R is ~0.8.
- There is no obvious connection between the daily CS rate and the solar cycle. However, this preliminary conclusion should be reconsidered after the expansion of the CS database to several solar cycles.
O.K. and R.K. are supported by Russian Science Foundation grant No. 20-42-04418. T.S. acknowledges the HSE’s general support and encouragement of student’s scientific activity.
How to cite: Khabarova, O., Sagitov, T., Kislov, R., and Li, G.: Multi-year statistical analysis of properties of current sheets at 1 AU, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13510, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13510, 2021.
Characterizing the detailed structure of the magnetic field in the active corona is of crucial importance for determining the chain of events from the formation to the destabilisation and subsequent eruption and propagation of coronal structures in the heliosphere. A comprehensive methodology to address these dynamic processes is needed in order to advance our capabilities to predict the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in interplanetary space and thereby for increasing the accuracy of space weather predictions. A promising toolset to provide the key missing information on the magnetic structure of CMEs are time-dependent data-driven simulations of active region magnetic fields. This methodology permits self-consistent modeling of the evolution of the coronal magnetic field from the emergence of flux to the birth of the eruption and beyond.
In this presentation, we discuss our modeling efforts in which time-dependent data-driven coronal modeling together with heliospheric physics-based modeling are employed to study and characterize CMEs, in particular their magnetic structure, at various stages in their evolution from the Sun to Earth.
How to cite: Pomoell, J., Kilpua, E., Price, D., Asvestari, E., Sarkar, R., Good, S., Kumari, A., Pal, S., and Daei, F.: Modeling the magnetic structure of CMEs in the inner heliosphere based on data-driven time-dependent simulations of active region evolution, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13048, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13048, 2021.
We present a three-dimensional (3D) numerical magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model of the white-light coronagraph observational phenomena known as coronal inflows and in/out pairs. Coronal inflows in the LASCO/C2 field of view (approximately 2–6 Rs) were thought to arise from the dynamic and intermittent release of solar wind plasma associated with the helmet streamer belt as the counterpart to outward-propagating streamer blobs, formed by magnetic reconnection. The MHD simulation results show relatively narrow lanes of density depletion form high in the corona and propagate inward with sinuous motion that has been characterized as "tadpole-like" in coronagraph imagery. The height–time evolution and velocity profiles of the simulation inflows and in/out pairs are compared to their corresponding observations and a detailed analysis of the underlying magnetic field structure associated with the synthetic white-light and mass density evolution is presented. Understanding the physical origin of this structured component of the slow solar wind’s intrinsic variability could make a significant contribution to solar wind modeling and the interpretation of remote and in situ observations from Parker Solar Probe and Solar Orbiter.
How to cite: Lynch, B.: A Model for Coronal Inflows and In/Out Pairs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-10416, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10416, 2021.
Using combined STEREO-SOHO white-light data, we present a method to determine the volume and density of a coronal mass ejection (CME) by applying the graduated cylindrical shell model (GCS) and deprojected mass derivation. Under the assumption that the CME mass is roughly equally distributed within a specific volume, we expand the CME self-similarly and calculate the CME density for distances close to the Sun (15–30 Rs) and at 1 AU. The procedure is applied on a sample of 29 well-observed CMEs and compared to their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs). Specific trends are derived comparing calculated and in-situ measured proton densities at 1 AU, though large uncertainties are revealed due to the unknown mass and geometry evolution: i) a moderate correlation for the magnetic structure having a mass that stays rather constant and ii) a weak correlation for the sheath density by assuming the sheath region is an extra mass - as expected for a mass pile-up process - that is in its amount comparable to the initial CME deprojected mass. High correlations are derived between in-situ measured sheath density and the solar wind density and solar wind speed as measured 24 hours ahead of the arrival of the disturbance. This gives additional confirmation that the sheath-plasma indeed stems from piled-up solar wind material. While the CME interplanetary propagation speed is not related to the sheath density, the size of the CME may play some role in how much material is piled up.
How to cite: Temmer, M., Holzknecht, L., Dumbovic, M., Vrsnak, B., Sachdeva, N., Heinemann, S. G., Dissauer, K., Scolini, C., Asvestari, E., Veronig, A. M., and Hofmeister, S.: Deriving CME volume and density from remote sensing data, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2535, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2535, 2021.
The solar coronal magnetic field plays an important role in the formation, evolution, and dynamics of small and large-scale structures in the corona. Estimation of the coronal magnetic field, the ultimate driver of space weather, particularly in the ‘low’ and ‘middle’ corona, is presently limited due to practical difficulties. Data-driven time-dependent magnetofrictional modelling (TMFM) of active region magnetic fields has been proven as a tool to observe and study the corona. In this work, we present a detailed study of data-driven TMFM of active region 12473 to trace the early evolution of the flux rope related to the coronal mass ejection that occurred on 28 December 2015. Non-inductive electric field component in the photosphere is critical for energizing and introducing twist to the coronal magnetic field, thereby allowing unstable configurations to be formed. We estimate this component using an approach based on optimizing the injection of magnetic energy. We study the effects of these optimisation parameters on the data driven coronal simulations. By varying the free optimisation parameters, we explore the changes in flux rope formation and their early evolution, as well other parameters, e.g. axial flux, magnetic field magnitude.
How to cite: Kumari, A., Price, D., Kilpua, E., Pomoell, J., and Daei, F.: Effects of optimisation parameters on data-driven magnetofrictional modelling , EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9500, 2021.
In the present paper, we have studied the relationship between the Extreme Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) waves phenomena with solar flares, coronal holes, solar winds, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) events. The EIT/ SOHO instrument recorded 176 EIT events during the above period (March 25, 1997-June 17, 1998) and the EIT waves list was published by Thompson & Myers (2009). After temporal matching of EIT wave events with CMEs phenomena, we find that corresponding to 58 EIT wave events, no CMEs events were recorded and thus we excluded 58 EIT wave events from the present study. Out of 176 EIT wave events, only 106 are accompanied by CMEs phenomena. The correlation study of the speed of EIT wave events and CMEs events of 106 events shows poor correlation r= 0.32, indicate that the EIT waves and CMEs events do not have a common mechanism of origin, and also indicate that some other factor is working in the formation of CMEs from EIT waves. Further, We have also matched the spatial matching EIT wave sources as indicated by Thomson & Myers (2009) with CHs and flares and found that CMEs appear to be associated with EIT wave phenomena and CHs. Earlier Verma & Pande (1989), Verma (1998) indicated that the CMEs may have been produced by some mechanism, in which the mass ejected by solar flares or active prominences, gets connected with the open magnetic lines of CHs (source of high-speed solar wind streams) and moves along them to appear as CMEs. Most recently Verma & Mittal (2019) proposed a methodology to understand the origin of CMEs through magnetic reconnection of CHs and solar flares. In the present paper, we proposed a scenario/ 2-dimensional model, in which the origin of CMEs through reconnection of EIT waves and solar winds coming from the CHs and also found that the calculated CMEs velocity after reconnection of EIT waves and solar winds coming from the CHs are in very close to the observed CMEs linear velocity. We also calculated the value of the correlation coefficient between the observed linear velocity of CME events and the calculated value of CMEs velocity after reconnection and found the value as r=0.884. The value of correlation as r=0.884 is excellent and supports the proposed methodology. Finally, we have also discussed the relationship of EIT wave phenomena with other solar phenomena, in view of the latest scenario of solar heliophysics phenomena.
Thompson, B. J. & Myers, D. C. (2009) APJS, 183, 225.
Verma, V. K. & Pande, M. C. (1989) Proc. IAU Colloq. 104 Solar and Stellar Flares (Poster Papers), Stanford University, Stanford, USA, p.239.
Verma, V. K.(1998) Journal of Geophysical Indian Union, 2, 65.
Verma, V. K. & Mittal, N.(2019) Astronomy Letters, 45, 164-
How to cite: Verma, V.: Relationship of EIT Waves Phenomena with Other Solar Phenomena, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-38, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-38, 2020.
We present a catalogue, IPSCAT, of the results of Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) analysis applied to observations that are compiled using data from three European radio networks, EISCAT, MERLIN and LOFAR, during the early science phase of the STEREO mission, from 2007 to 2012. These analyses provide a means to study the solar wind and interplanetary transients, which we complement with observations from the Heliospheric Imagers on-board STEREO. Within the IPS data set we identify transient phenomena, specifically Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and Stream Interaction Regions (SIRs), via both visual inspection and an automatic feature-finding algorithm. We study the effectiveness of the automated detection algorithm and find it to be successful at classifying CMEs, whilst the identification of SIRs is less easily established. A discussion of the statistical properties of IPSCAT is presented, together with a comparison between the IPS and HI results. Finally, we present a case study of successive CMEs within the IPSCAT data set, which were also observed by the HIs on both STEREO spacecraft and analysed using the Stereoscopic Self-Similar Expansion (SSSE) method. This work was carried out as part of the EU FP7 HELCATS (Heliospheric Cataloguing, Analysis and Techniques Service) project (http://www.helcats-fp7.eu/).
How to cite: Barnes, D., Bisi, M., Davies, J., and Harrison, R.: IPSCAT: A Catalogue of Solar Transients Identified through Interplanetary Scintillation Analysis, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-2667, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-2667, 2021.
Geomagnetic storms are mainly driven by the two main solar wind transients: coronal mass ejections (CME) and high-speed solar wind streams with related (corotating) stream interaction regions (HSS/SIR). CMEs are produced by new magnetic flux emerging on solar surface as active regions, and their occurrence follows the occurrence of sunspots quite closely. HSSs are produced by coronal holes, whose occurrence at the ecliptic is maximized in the declining phase of the solar cycle.
Geomagnetic storms are defined and quantified by the Dst index that measures the intensity of the ring current and is available since 1957. We have corrected some early errors in the Dst index and extended its time interval from 1932 onwards using the same stations as the Dst index (CTO preceding HER). This extended storm index is called the Dxt index. We have also constructed Dxt3 and Dxt2 indices from three/two of the longest-operating Dst stations to extend the storm index back to 1903, covering more than a century of storms.
We divide the storms into four intensity categories (weak, moderate, intense and major), and use the classification of solar wind by Richardson et al. into CME, HSS/SIR and slow wind -related flows in order to study the drivers of storms of each intensity category since 1964. We also correct and use the list of sudden storm commencements (SSC) collected by Father P. Mayaud, and divide the storms of each category into SSC-related storms and non-SSC storms.
Studying geomagnetic storms of different intensity category and SSC relation allows us to study the occurrence of CMEs and HSS/SIR over the last century. We also use these results to derive new information on the centennial evolution of the structure of solar magnetic fields.
How to cite: Mursula, K., Qvick, T., and Holappa, L.: A century of geomagnetic storms, CMEs and HSS/SIRs, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-13423, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-13423, 2021.
We present a study of two CMEs observed at Mercury and 1 AU by spacecraft in longitudinal conjunction. Of the two CMEs, one propagated relatively self-similarly, while the other one underwent significant changes in its properties, making them excellent case studies to investigate the following question: what causes the drastic alterations observed in some CMEs during propagation, while other CMEs remain relatively unchanged? Answering this question will also help us better understand the potential impact of CMEs on the near-Earth environment.
In this work we focus on the presence or absence of large-scale corotating structures in the propagation space between Mercury and 1 AU, that have been shown in the past to influence the orientation of CME magnetic structures and the properties of CME sheaths. At both locations, we determine the CME flux rope orientation and characteristics using different fitting and classification methods. Our analysis is complemented by solar wind plasma measurements near 1 AU, by estimates of the size evolution of the sheaths and magnetic ejecta with heliocentric distance, and by the identification of solar wind structures in the CME propagation space based on in situ data, remote-sensing observations, and numerical simulations of the solar wind conditions in the inner heliosphere.
Results indicate that the changes observed in one CME were likely caused by a stream interaction region, while the CME exhibiting little change did not interact with any large-scale structure between Mercury and 1 AU. This work provides end-member examples of CME propagation in the inner heliosphere, exemplifying how interactions with corotating structures in the solar wind can induce essential changes in CME structures. Our findings provide new fundamental insights on the propagation and evolution of CMEs, and can help lay the foundation for improved predictions of CME properties at 1 AU.
How to cite: Scolini, C., Winslow, R. M., Lugaz, N., and Galvin, A. B.: The effect of stream interaction regions on CME structures: observations in longitudinal conjunction at Mercury and 1 AU, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-661, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-661, 2021.
Different regimes of the solar wind have been observed at L1 during and after the passage of ICMEs, particularly anomalies with very low plasma density. From the observations at L1 (ACE) we identified different possible cases. A first case was explained by the evacuation of the plasma due over expansion of the ICME (May 2002). The second case on July 2002 is intriguing.In July 2002, three halo fast speed ICMEs, with their origin in the central part of the Sun, have surprisingly a poor impact on the magnetosphere (Dst > -28 nT). Analyzing the characteristics of the first ICME at L1, we conclude that the spacecraft crosses the ICME with a large impact (Bx component in GSE coordinates is dominant). The plasma density is low, just behind this first ICME. Next, we explore the generic conditions of low density formation in the EUHFORIA simulations.The very low density plasma after the sheath could be explained by the spacecraft crossing, on the side of the flux rope, while behind the front shock. We investigate two possible interpretations. The shock was able to compress and accelerate so much the plasma that a lower density is left behind. This can also be due to an effect of the sheath magnetic field which extends the flux rope effect on the sides of it, so a decrease of plasma density could occur like behind a moving object (here the sheath field). The following ICME, with also a low density, could be an intrinsic case with the formation in the corona of a cavity. Finally, we present some runs of EUHFORIA which fit approximately these data and argue in favor of the possible interpretations detailed above.
How to cite: Schmieder, B., Verbeke, C., Chané, E., Démoulin, P., Poedts, S., and Grison, B.: ICMEs and low plasma density in the solar wind observed at L1, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-1799, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-1799, 2021.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are primary drivers of space weather phenomena. Modelling the evolution of the internal magnetic field configuration of CMEs as they propagate through the interplanetary space is an essential part of space weather forecasting. EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) is a data-driven, physics-based model, able to trace the evolution of CMEs and CME-driven shocks through realistic background solar wind conditions. It employs a spheromak-type magnetic flux rope that is initially force-free, providing it with the advantage of modelling CME as magnetised structures. For this work we assessed the spheromak CME model employed in EUHFORIA with a test CME case study. The selected CME eruption occurred on the 6th of January 2013 and was encountered by two spacecraft, Venus Express and STEREO--A, which were radially aligned at the time of the CME passage. Our focus was to constrain the input parameters, with particular interest in: (1) translating the angular widths of the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) fitting to the spheromak radius, and (2) matching the observed magnetic field topology at the source region. We ran EUHFORIA with three different spheromak radii. The model predicts arrival times from half to a full day ahead of the one observed in situ. We conclude that the choice of spheromak radius affected the modelled magnetic field profiles, their amplitude, arrival times, and sheath region length.
How to cite: Asvestari, E., Pomoell, J., Kilpua, E., Good, S., Chatzistergos, T., Temmer, M., Palmerio, E., Poedts, S., and Magdalenic, J.: Constraining the CME parameters of the spheromak flux rope implemented in EUHFORIA, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3291, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3291, 2021.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) cause various disturbances of the space environment; therefore, forecasting their arrival time is very important. However, forecasting accuracy is hindered by limited CME observations in interplanetary space. This study developed a CME arrival-time forecasting system using a three-dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations based on interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations. The base MHD simulation is SUSANO-CME (Shiota and Kataoka 2016), in which CMEs are approximated as spheromaks. In the developed forecasting system, many MHD simulations with different CME initial speed are tested. The IPS responses of each MHD simulation run is calculated from the density distributions derived from the MHD simulation, and compared with IPS data observed by the Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research (ISEE), Nagoya University. The CME arrival time of the simulation run that most closely agrees with the IPS data is automatically selected as the forecasted time.
We then validate the accuracy of this forecast using 12 halo CME events. The average absolute arrival-time error of the IPS-based MHD forecast is approximately 5.0 h, which is one of the most accurate predictions that ever been validated, whereas that of MHD simulations without IPS data, in which the initial CME speed is derived from white-light coronagraph images, is approximately 6.7 h. This suggests that the assimilation of IPS data into MHD simulations can improve the accuracy of CME arrival-time forecasts. The average predicted arrival times are earlier than the actual arrival times. These early predictions may be due to overestimation of the magnetic field included in the spheromak and/or underestimation of the drag force from the background solar wind, the latter of which could be related to underestimation of CME size or background solar wind density.
How to cite: Iwai, K., Shiota, D., Tokumaru, M., Fujiki, K., Den, M., and Kubo, Y.: Development and Validation of CME Arrival-Time Forecasting System by MHD Simulations based on Interplanetary Scintillation Observations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-3605, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-3605, 2021.
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), large scale transient eruptions observed in the Sun, are thought to also be spawned by other magnetically active stars. The magnetic flux ropes intrinsic to these storms, and associated high-speed plasma ejecta perturb planetary environments creating hazardous conditions. To understand the physics of CME impact and consequent perturbations in planetary environments, we use 3D compressible magnetohydrodynamic simulation of a star-planet module (CESSI-SPIM) developed at CESSI, IISER Kolkata based on the PLUTO code architecture. We explore magnetohydrodynamic processes such as the formation of a bow-shock, magnetopause, magnetotail, planet-bound current sheets and atmospheric mass loss as a consequence of magnetic-storm-planetary interactions. Specifically, we utilize a realistic, twisted flux rope model for our CME, which leads to interesting dynamics related to helicity injection into the magnetosphere. Such studies will help us understand how energetic magnetic storms from host stars impact magnetospheres and atmospheres with implications for planetary and exoplanetary habitability.
How to cite: Roy, S. and Nandy, D.: Modelling the Impact of Magnetic Storms on Planetary Environments, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8863, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8863, 2021.
Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) and their interplanetary counterparts (ICMEs) are key drivers of space weather throughout the heliosphere. Observational studies are used to understand their evolution and for developing existing models and theory in space weather forecasting. Motivated by the future exploration of the solar high-latitudes by Solar Orbiter and complimented by Parker Solar Probe, we aim to contribute to the understanding of high-latitude CMEs as they develop into ICMEs. We examine a high-latitude CME and its subsequent ICME using data from STEREO, Ulysses, and near-Earth spacecraft. We apply a triangulation method to the remote-sensing images from the twin STEREO spacecraft and conduct a multi-spacecraft analysis using the in-situ Ulysses, STEREO, and near-Earth spacecraft data. The Ulysses observations, supported by the other spacecraft, provides a clear picture of the ICME geometry and structure: a shock, followed by a sheath region, and a magnetic flux rope followed by a high-speed stream. This ICME differs from the known ‘over-expanding’ types observed in the high-latitudes by the Ulysses mission, in that it straddles a region between the slow and fast solar winds which in itself drives a shock.
How to cite: Maunder, M., Foullon, C., Forsyth, R., Davies, E., Barnes, D., and Davies, J.: Multi-Spacecraft Observations of a Unique Type of High-Latitude ICME, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-12295, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-12295, 2021.
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