CL4.6
Arctic climate change: governing mechanisms and global implications

CL4.6

Arctic climate change: governing mechanisms and global implications
Convener: Richard Bintanja | Co-convener: Rune Grand Graversen
vPICO presentations
| Thu, 29 Apr, 14:15–15:00 (CEST)

vPICO presentations: Thu, 29 Apr

Chairperson: Rune Grand Graversen
14:15–14:20
14:20–14:25
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EGU21-9223
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solicited
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Highlight
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Lars H. Smedsrud, Morven Muilwijk, Ailin Brakstad, and Erica Madonna and the Nordic Seas Synthesis Team

Poleward ocean heat transport is a key process in the earth system. Here we detail the changing northward Atlantic Water (AW) flow in the Nordic Seas and the associated Arctic Ocean heat transport and heat loss to the atmosphere since 1900, in relation to the sea ice cover. Our synthesis is largely based on a sea ice-ocean model forced by a reanalysis atmosphere (1900-2018) corroborated by a comprehensive hydrographic database (1950-), measurements of AW inflow (1996-), and other key long-term regional time series. Since the 1970s, ocean temperatures have increased in the Nordic, Barents and Polar Seas, in particular on the shelves. The AW loses heat to the atmosphere as it travels poleward, mostly in  the Nordic Seas, where ~60% of the Arctic Ocean total heat loss resides. Nordic Seas heat loss variability is large, but the long-term positive trend is small. The Barents Sea heat loss is ~30% of the total, but has larger consistently positive trends, related to AW heat transport and sea ice loss. The Arctic seas farther north see only ~10% of the  total heat loss, but show a consistently large increase in heat loss as well as decrease in sea ice since 1900. The AW inflow, the cooling of this water mass as it travels poleward, and the dense outflow have thus all increased since 1900, and they are consistently related through theoretical scaling. Some of the increased AW inflow is wind-driven, and much of the heat loss variability is linked to Cold Air Outbreaks and cyclones in the Nordic and Barents Seas. The oceanic warming is congruent with increased ocean heat transport and a loss of sea ice, and has contributed to the retreat of marine terminating glaciers on Greenland. After 2000, the warming has accelerated, creating a “new normal” that appears to also affect deep water volumes and temperature. The 20th century average Nordic, Barents and Polar Seas CO2 uptake constitutes ~8% of the global ocean, and is almost entirely driven by heat loss to the atmosphere as the AW transforms from inflow to overflow water. The total Arctic Ocean CO2 uptake has increased by ~30% since 1900, which is closely linked to the loss of sea ice in the Barents and Polar Seas.

How to cite: Smedsrud, L. H., Muilwijk, M., Brakstad, A., and Madonna, E. and the Nordic Seas Synthesis Team: Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-9223, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-9223, 2021.

14:25–14:30
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EGU21-8719
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ECS
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solicited
Sonja Murto, Rodrigo Caballero, Gunilla Svensson, and Lukas Papritz

Atmospheric blocking can influence Arctic weather by diverting the mean westerly flow polewards, bringing warm, moist air to high latitudes. Recent studies have shown that diabatic heating processes in the ascending warm conveyor belt branch of extratropical cyclones are relevant to blocking dynamics. This leads to the question of the extent to which diabatic heating associated with mid-latitude cyclones may influence high-latitude blocking and drive Arctic warm events. In this study we investigate the dynamics behind 50 extreme warm events of wintertime high Arctic surface temperature anomalies. We find that 30 of these events are associated with “Ural” blocking, featuring negative upper-level PV anomalies over central Siberia north of the Ural Mountains. Lagrangian back-trajectory calculations show that almost 70% of the air parcels making up these negative PV anomalies experience lifting and diabatic heating (average 14,7 K) in the 9-days prior to blocking. Further, 43,4 % of the heated trajectories undergo maximum heating and lifting in a compact region of the midlatitude North Atlantic, temporally taking place between 6 and 2.5 days before arriving in the blocking region. These trajectories mainly reside in the subtropics before being advected into the lifting region. We also find anomalously high cyclonic activity (on average 3,9 cyclones within a 3,5-day window around the time of maximum lifting) within a sector northwest of the main lifting domain. This study highlights the importance of the interaction between mid-latitude cyclones and Eurasian blocking as driver for Arctic warm extremes.

How to cite: Murto, S., Caballero, R., Svensson, G., and Papritz, L.: Interaction between Atlantic cyclones and Eurasian atmospheric blocking drives warm extremes in the high Arctic, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8719, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8719, 2021.

14:30–14:32
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EGU21-8500
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Highlight
Tyler Janoski, Michael Previdi, Gabriel Chiodo, Karen Smith, and Lorenzo Polvani

Arctic amplification (AA), or enhanced surface warming of the Arctic, is ubiquitous in observations, and in model simulations subjected to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing. Despite its importance, the mechanisms driving AA are not entirely understood. Here, we show that in CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5) general circulation models (GCMs), AA develops within a few months following an instantaneous quadrupling of atmospheric CO2. We find that this rapid AA response can be attributed to the lapse rate feedback, which acts to disproportionately warm the Arctic, even before any significant changes in Arctic sea ice occur. Only on longer timescales (beyond the first few months) does the decrease in sea ice become an important contributor to AA via the albedo feedback and increased ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux. An important limitation of our CMIP5 analysis is that internal climate variability is large on the short time scales considered. To overcome this limitation – and thus better isolate the GHG-forced response – we produced a large ensemble (100 members) of instantaneous CO2-quadrupling simulations using a single GCM, the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM1). In our new CESM1 ensemble we find the same rapid AA response seen in the CMIP5 models, confirming that AA ultimately owes its existence to fast atmospheric processes.

How to cite: Janoski, T., Previdi, M., Chiodo, G., Smith, K., and Polvani, L.: Arctic amplification as a rapid response to increased CO2, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-8500, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-8500, 2021.

14:32–14:34
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EGU21-15660
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ECS
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Highlight
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Svenya Chripko, Rym Msadek, Emilia Sanchez-Gomez, Laurent Terray, Laurent Bessières, and Marie-Pierre Moine

Previous climate model studies have shown that Arctic sea ice decline can solely affect weather and climate at lower latitudes during the cold season. However, the mechanisms beneath this linkage are poorly understood. Whether sea ice loss have had an influence on the lower latitudes climate over the past decades is also uncertain (Barnes and Screen 2015). The goal of this work is to better understand the relative contributions of dyncamical and thermodynamical changes in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss, which have been suggested to oppose each other (Screen 2017). We conducted two sets of sensitivity transient experiments that allow to isolate the effect of Arctic sea ice decline on the mid-latitudes from other climate forcings, using the climate model CNRM-CM6 (Voldoire et al. 2019) in a coupled configuration or with an atmosphere-only. The first set of experiments, that is part of the European H2020 PRIMAVERA project, consists of a 100-member ensemble in which sea ice albedo is reduced to the ocean value (PERT) in the fully coupled CNRM-CM6, and which is compared to a 1950 control run (CTL) (Haarsma et al. 2016). This yields idealised ice-free conditions in summer and a more moderate sea ice reduction during the following months. The second set of experiments, that is part of the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP, Smith et al. 2019), consists of a 300-member ensemble in which the atmospheric component of CNRM-CM6 is forced by sea ice anomalies associated with a future 2°C warming (FUT) and present day sea surface temperatures (SSTs). These are compared to experiments in which the atmosphere is forced by present-day sea ice conditions (PD) and the same SSTs. To extract the dynamical component of the response in the two sets of experiments, we use a dynamical adjustment method (Deser et al. 2016) based on a regional reconstruction of circulation analogs. We focus on three mid-latitudes regions in which a significant near-surface temperature response has been identified, namely North America, Europe and central Asia. We show that the cooling occurring over central Asia in both sets of experiments is dynamically-induced through an intensification of the Siberian High, and that opposed temperature responses over North America between the two sets of experiments could be explained by opposed dynamical components occurring in response to the imposed Arctic sea ice decline. Finally, we discuss whether different dynamical and thermodynamical contributions in the PAMIP multi-model experiments could explain the multi-model differences in the atmospheric response to sea ice loss.

How to cite: Chripko, S., Msadek, R., Sanchez-Gomez, E., Terray, L., Bessières, L., and Moine, M.-P.: Dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the mid-latitude atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice decline, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-15660, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-15660, 2021.

14:34–14:36
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EGU21-5251
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ECS
Olivia Linke and Johannes Quaas

The strong warming trend in the Arctic is mostly confined at the surface, and particularly evident during the cold season. The lapse rate feedback (LRF) stands out as one of the dominant causes of the Arctic amplification (besides the surface albedo feedback) given its differing response between high and lower latitudes. The LRF is the deviation from the uniform temperature change throughout the troposphere, and can thereby be quantified as the difference of tropospheric warming and surface warming. In the Arctic, it enforces a positive radiative feedback as the bottom-heavy warming is increasingly muted at higher altitudes, which has been suggested to relate to the lack of vertical mixing. In fact, climate model studies have recently identified more negative lapse rates for models with stronger inversions over large parts of the Arctic ocean, and snow-free land during winter.

Here we quantify individual components of the atmospheric energy balance to better understand the determination of the temperature lapse rate in the Arctic, which does not only interact with the surface albedo feedback, but also changes in atmospheric transport. A decomposition of the atmospheric energy budget is derived from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and concerns the radiation budgets, the transport divergence of heat and moisture, and the surface turbulent heat fluxes. Alterations of the budget components are obtained through pairs of model scenarios to simulate the impact of increasing atmospheric CO2 levels in an idealized setup.

The most notable features are the strongly opposing winter changes of the surface heat fluxes over regions of sea ice retreat and open Arctic ocean, and the interplay with the compensating energy transport divergence which can be linked to the near-surface air moist static energy in an energetic-diffusive perspective. We further aim to relate the changes of individual energetics to the temperature lapse rate in the Arctic to better understand and quantify the factors contributing to its evolution.

How to cite: Linke, O. and Quaas, J.: The Arctic lapse rate feedback: An energy budget analysis of CMIP6 models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-5251, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-5251, 2021.

14:36–14:38
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EGU21-6564
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ECS
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Maria Parfenova and Igor I. Mokhov

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between the interannual variability of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface temperature in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using satellitedata, observational data and reanalysis data for the last four decades (1980-2019) are obtained. The previously noted general increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent (up to 2016) (according to satellite data available only since the late 1970s), happening simultaneously with global warming and rapid decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent, is associated with the regional manifestation of natural climate fluctuations with periods of up to several decades. The results of correlation and crosswavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation of hemispheric surface temperature with not only Arctic,but also Antarctic sea ice extent in recent decades.

Seasonal and regional peculiarities of snow cover sensitivity to temperature regime changes in the Northern Hemisphere are noted with an assessment of changes in recent decades. Peculiarities of snow cover variability in Eurasia and North America are presented. In particular, the peculiarities of changes in snow cover during the autumn seasons are noted.

How to cite: Parfenova, M. and Mokhov, I. I.: Features of changes in the sea ice and snow cover extents associated with temperature changes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in recent decades., EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-6564, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-6564, 2021.

14:38–14:40
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EGU21-14215
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ECS
Tuomas Ilkka Henrikki Heiskanen

 Climate change in the Arctic is likely to lead to a significant melting of ice sheets and glaciers. This will be an important driving
  mechanism for future sea-level rise. During the last decades the Greenland ice sheet has lost mass at an unprecedented rate. 
  This has lead to the Greenland ice sheet to be an important contributor to sea-level rise. Here we test the hypothesis that a 
  change in the atmospheric circulation over Greenland contributes to the exceptionally negative surface mass balance observed over the
  last decades. 

  The atmospheric transport contributes an amount of energy into the Arctic that is 
  comparable to that provided directly by the sun. From recently developed Fourier and wavelet based methods it has been found that 
  the planetary component of the latent heat transport affects that Arctic surface temperatures stronger than the decomposed dry-static 
  energy transport and the synoptic scale component of the latent heat transport. 

  The south west ablation zone of the Greenland ice-sheet is one of the main contributors to mass loss of the ice-sheet. Comparing 
  the ablation in this area with patterns of the divergence of latent heat transport shows that similar decadal-scale trends are found 
  in the surface mass balance and divergence of latent heat transport data. 
  During the last decades the divergence of latent heat has shifted from 
  synoptic scale to planetary scale, implying an increased convergence of latent heat transport by synoptic scale waves to the south
  west coast of Greenland. 

  Through linear regressions we find that the shift from planetary scale transport convergence to synoptic scale convergence describes
  approximately 25 % of the surface mass balance anomaly, since year 2000, in the south west region of Greenland. The total amount 
  of energy transported into this region has not changed dramatically. Hence this indicates the importance of the systems transporting 
  the energy or conditions under which the transport by the different wave types take place. 
  Transport by synoptic scale waves seems to be an important contributor to the surface mass loss of the Greenland ice
  sheet. A possible explanation for this is that synoptic scale transport into the ablation zone is associated with warmer conditions
  than the planetary component over the same region. Hence providing favorable conditions for ice melting, and possibly a larger 
  fraction of liquid precipitation. However, why this is so is still a subject we study. 
  Further we try to identify how different melt driving mechanisms are 
  associated with both planetary and synoptic scale divergence of energy transport, and which of these lead to the differing effects on
  the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet.

How to cite: Heiskanen, T. I. H.: The effect of a shift in the atmospheric energy transport scales on the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14215, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14215, 2021.

14:40–14:42
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EGU21-14735
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ECS
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Jan Streffing, Tido Semmler, Lorenzo Zampieri, and Thomas Jung

The impact of Arctic sea ice decline on the weather and climate in mid-latitudes is still much debated, with observation suggesting a strong and models a much weaker link. In this study, we use the atmospheric model OpenIFS, in a set of model experiments following the protocol outlined in the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), to investigate whether the simulated atmospheric response to future changes in Arctic sea ice fundamentally depends on model resolution. More specifically, we increase the horizontal resolution of the model from 125km to 39km with 91 vertical levels; in a second step resolution is further increased to 16km with 137 levels in the vertical. We find that neither the mean atmospheric response nor the ensemble convergence toward the mean are strongly impacted by the model resolutions considered here.

How to cite: Streffing, J., Semmler, T., Zampieri, L., and Jung, T.: Response of Northern Hemisphere weather and climate to Arctic sea ice decline: The role of resolution in Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) simulations, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14735, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14735, 2021.

14:42–14:44
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EGU21-14736
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Andy Richling, Uwe Ulbrich, Henning Rust, Johannes Riebold, and Dörthe Handorf

Over the last decades the Arctic climate change has been observed with a much faster warming of the Arctic compared to the global average (Arctic amplification) and related sea-ice retreat. These changes in sea ice can affect the large-scale atmospheric circulation over the mid-latitudes, in particular atmospheric blocking, and thus the frequency and severity of extreme events. As a step towards a better understanding of changes in weather and climate extremes over Central Europe associated with Arctic climate change, we first analyze the linkage between recent Arctic sea ice loss and blocking variability using logistic regression models. ERA5 reanalysis data are used on a monthly and seasonal time scale, and specific regional sea ice variabilities are explored. First results indicate an increased occurrence-probability in terms of blocking frequency over Greenland in summer as well as over Scandinavia/Ural in winter during low sea ice conditions. 

How to cite: Richling, A., Ulbrich, U., Rust, H., Riebold, J., and Handorf, D.: Linkage between Arctic Sea Ice Area and Atmospheric Blocking Probability over Europe using Logistic Regression Models, EGU General Assembly 2021, online, 19–30 Apr 2021, EGU21-14736, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu21-14736, 2021.

14:44–15:00