Long-term increase in precipitation intermittency and intensity at Paleogene mid latitudes

Unmitigated scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions produce climates like those of the Early Eocene by 2150 CE, suggesting that we are effectively reversing a more than 50-million-year cooling trend in less than two centuries. Terrestrial records of rivers and floodplains from Paleogene sedimentary basins in the US Western interior and Europe indicate an increase in flash floods and droughts at paleo-mid latitudes, indicating increased precipitation intensity and intermittency. In the Uinta Basin, Utah magnetostratigraphic analyses, absolute age dates, and biostratigraphy allow the reconstruction of changes in hydroclimate from the Early Paleocene, to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), and through the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Here we observe that the largest shifts in hydroclimate are not linked to the PETM but rather occur during the warm Late Paleocene and then at the end of the EECO. This is indicated by the river sedimentary record that shows a shift from normal rivers, such as are characteristic at mid-latitudes today, to flood-prone rivers in late Paleocene. The rivers shifted back to normal at the end of the EECO. Coeval changes are observed in floodplain paleosols where the late Paleocene and early Eocene paleosols indicate sustained droughts and intermittent seasonal rains. At the PETM there is no change in the state of hydroclimate, but rather a further intensification of floods and droughts. Comparison to other terrestrial basins at mid-latitudes shows similar patterns. These results show that the most dramatic shifts in hydroclimate were not linked to the largest amplitude of atmospheric drivers at the PETM, but rather suggest a threshold-driven relationship between the atmospheric drivers and hydroclimate. This may suggest that significant changes in hydroclimate are to be expected already before 2150 CE.