EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Some key challenges for subseasonal to decadal prediction research

William Merryfield1, Johanna Baehr2, Lauriane Batté3, Asmerom Beraki4,5, Leon Hermanson6, Debra Hudson7, Stephanie Johnson8, June-Yi Lee9,10, François Massonnet11, Ángel Muñoz12, Yvan Orsolini13, Hong-Li Ren14,15, Ramiro Saurral16,17, Doug Smith6, Yuhei Takaya18, and Krishnan Raghavan19
William Merryfield et al.
  • 1Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada
  • 2Institute of Oceanography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 3CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
  • 4CSIR-Smart Places, Holistic Climate Change Impact, Pretoria, South Africa
  • 5Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology, University of Pretoria, Pretoria, South Africa
  • 6Met Office, Exeter, UK
  • 7Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
  • 8European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK
  • 9Research Center for Climate Sciences, Pusan National University, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 10Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, Republic of Korea
  • 11Georges Lemaître Centre for Earth and Climate Research, Earth and Life Institute, Université catholique de Louvain, Belgium
  • 12International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI). The Earth Institute at Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA
  • 13NILU–Norwegian Institute for Air Research, Kjeller, Norway
  • 14Laboratory for Climate Studies and CMA‑NJU Joint Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China
  • 15Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geoscience, Wuhan, China
  • 16CONICET – Universidad de Buenos Aires, Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • 17Universidad de Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (DCAO), Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires, Argentina
  • 18Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
  • 19Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), Pune, India

The practice of initialized subseasonal, seasonal and decadal climate prediction has matured considerably in recent years, with real-time subseasonal and decadal multi-system ensembles joining those established previously for the seasonal to multi-seasonal range. However, substantial scientific, modelling, and informational challenges remain that must be overcome in order to more fully realize the potential for such predictions to serve societal needs. This presentation will examine five such challenges that the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) has identified as crucial for further advancing capabilities for translating the inherent predictability of the Earth system into actionable predictive information. Surmounting these challenges will bring nearer an envisaged future in which global users have access to such information specific to individual needs, across Earth system components and on a continuum of time scales, with degrees of confidence, limitations and uncertainties clearly indicated, as well as tools to guide optimal actions.

How to cite: Merryfield, W., Baehr, J., Batté, L., Beraki, A., Hermanson, L., Hudson, D., Johnson, S., Lee, J.-Y., Massonnet, F., Muñoz, Á., Orsolini, Y., Ren, H.-L., Saurral, R., Smith, D., Takaya, Y., and Raghavan, K.: Some key challenges for subseasonal to decadal prediction research, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-10621,, 2022.