Some key challenges for subseasonal to decadal prediction research

The practice of initialized subseasonal, seasonal and decadal climate prediction has matured considerably in recent years, with real-time subseasonal and decadal multi-system ensembles joining those established previously for the seasonal to multi-seasonal range. However, substantial scientific, modelling, and informational challenges remain that must be overcome in order to more fully realize the potential for such predictions to serve societal needs. This presentation will examine five such challenges that the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Subseasonal to Interdecadal Prediction (WGSIP) has identified as crucial for further advancing capabilities for translating the inherent predictability of the Earth system into actionable predictive information. Surmounting these challenges will bring nearer an envisaged future in which global users have access to such information specific to individual needs, across Earth system components and on a continuum of time scales, with degrees of confidence, limitations and uncertainties clearly indicated, as well as tools to guide optimal actions.