Extreme rainfall quantile estimation based on SSP scenarios: Focusing on the Hangang river basin

This study attempts to estimate the extreme rainfall quantile using the climate model data of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios presented in the sixth Assessment Report (AR6), published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Generally, the applied research related to climate change is conducted using numerical simulation data from various climate models. Generally, an ensemble scenario based on various regional climate models is used as a way to reduce the uncertainty from one climate model. In this study, the ensemble rainfall data (based on HadGEM3-RA, WRF, CCLM, GRIMs, and RegCM4) were obtained from the climate information portal (CIP, http://www.climate.go.kr/). The observed rainfall data was extracted and the regional quantile delta mapping (RQDM) method was applied for bias correction. Regional frequency analysis (RFA) was performed to estimate the rainfall quantile. In addition, the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution was applied as an appropriate probability distribution and the L-moments method was used for parameter estimation. As a result, the rainfall quantiles were estimated, and the effects of climate change were analyzed quantitatively in the study area.