Magnetohydrodynamic simulation of multiple coronal mass ejection (CME) events: Effects of input parameters and CME-CME interactions

Geomagnetic storms are one of the most important terrestrial space weather events and often commence in association with the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs). When a CME is explosively released into the heliosphere, a shock wave can be formed in front of the dense, supersonic CME material. Thus, the first indication of the arrival of a CME at the Earth is a sudden increase in the global magnetic intensity due to magnetospheric compression by the CME-driven shock. Predictions of the arrival of the shock are a key element in space weather forecasting. Several different variety of methods, including numerical simulations, have been applied to predict the shock arrival time but with mediocre results, with an average uncertainty of ~10 hr. In this study we will use magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations (Wu et al., 2020) to examine a number of input parameters such as the CME initial speed and release time in MHD simulation of CMEs and demonstrate their effect on the shock arrival time. We also explore effects of CME-CME interactions on the propagation of the CME/shock events. The multiple CME events that occurred during 6-29 July 2012 are simulated to highlight the importance of these factors on the prediction of shock arrival time using MHD simulations.