Impacts of future changes in seasonal hydrological drought on hydropower potential in the Yangtze River Basin

As an important renewable energy source, hydropower can meet China's needs for sustainable decarbonization. But it is very sensitive to climate change, and the occurrence of hydrological droughts will have a severe impact on hydropower. The significant decline in hydropower supply in dry years or seasons increases the demand for other power resources, especially fossil fuel, which will further increase greenhouse gas emissions. In the future, seasonal droughts are expected to change in the context of global warming, and their impact on hydropower generation needs to be studied, especially over the Yangtze River basin that has the largest hydropower resources and potential in China. In this study, the characteristics of seasonal hydrological drought events under historical and future climate conditions are analyzed in the Yangtze River Basin, and the PCR-GLOBWB hydrological model is further used to simulate the changes of water resources and hydropower generation under drought conditions. This study is beneficial to bring extreme events into the consideration of hydropower development and operation planning in China, and provides scientific basis for ensuring the safety of hydropower system.