Learn from the mummies: water wise resilience and adaptation in Egypt along the Nile River.

We preliminary investigate potential effects of climate change on Egypt water wise, and adaptation thereby based upon wisdom from the ancient Egyptians. Recent investigation linked socio-economic crises, and collapse events of ancient Egypt since 2200 BC to climate, e.g., droughts, and floods of the Nile, and heavy rainfalls in Northern Egypt. Dry, arid spells were associated to decrease of summer precipitation in the Ethiopian Highlands, while intensive rainfalls could be triggered by the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Here we couple climate, and hydrological modelling, with archaeological and historical investigation, to understand long-term adaptation to the ever-changing climate. We assess past climate of Egypt and consequent changing hydrology of the Nile, including situations of flood risk and food insecurity. We highlight a nexus between changing in climate and hydrology, conflicts, and social disorders.

We tune the Poli-Hydro model for Nile River basin for the XX century, and then use it to simulate future scenarios under climate change projections from six GCMs, of the AR6 of IPCC. We compare future scenarios of climate, and hydrology against past climates patterns. We analyse typical adaptation patterns as from the history of ancient Egypt (e.g. changes of diet, irrigation and cropping strategies, etc.), and we discuss their application for adaption to future climate. Our work may provide a tool to build upon past resilience/adaptation strategies, to conceive viable countermeasures to future climate change here, and in similarly arid areas, to counteract potential food insecurity, flood risk, and conflicts.