Long-term differential water level responses of a group of tropical maar lakes in a semi-arid basin (Cuenca Serdán Oriental, México)

Global change has different effects on inland water bodies. In the case of lakes, the water level is a variable frequently affected. Lakes in semi-arid zones are susceptible to climatic and anthropic forcing. Understanding how these factors modulate changes in lakes is essential to develop forecasts and generate management and conservation programs. However, lakes evolution under external forcing may differ despite belonging to the same system. The differences highlight the importance of developing particular management plans for each lake. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the factors that modulate these peculiarities. An example in central Mexico is the six maar lakes found in the easternmost basin of the Mexican Plateau, the Serdán Oriental Basin: Alchichica, Quechulac, La Preciosa, Atexcac, Tecuitlapa, and Aljojuca. Groundwater flow is essential in the water balances of these lakes. However, intensive groundwater exploitation for agriculture has occurred since the '80s in this semi-arid basin. Several studies have revealed that these lakes' trophic states, biota, and chemical compositions differ remarkably. Both locals and researchers have noted water-level declines in all lakes in recent decades. Water level evolution also seems to be particular in each lake. Data on the lakes water levels from 1960 to 1992 and subsequent changes are analyzed. We assessed physical (e.g., climatic, geological, hydrogeological, vegetation) and anthropic (land-use changes and groundwater exploitation) factors that could modulate the water level evolution differences. Time series analysis, remote sensing, and statistical methods were applied. This work represents a conceptual framework for further studies oriented to the numerical modeling of the lake system and the exploration of future change scenarios.