EGU22-11169
https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11169
EGU General Assembly 2022
© Author(s) 2022. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

The connection between quality of wind forecasts and the dynamics of the winds

Haraldur Ólafsson
Haraldur Ólafsson
  • Reykjavík School of Meteorology and Climate, University of Iceland, Reykjavík, Iceland (haraldur68@gmail.com)

Motivated by the need to predict dust-storms, a large set of wind observations are compared to 24 h point forecasts with a high-resolution numerical model.  The cases are classified according to the dynamic nature of the winds; (a) wind over flat land, (b) enhanced winds blowing along a mountain (barrier/corner winds) and (c) downslope winds. The mean quality of the forecasts over flat land is similar to the quality of the forecasts of enhanced winds blowing along a mountain.  The quality of the forecast of the downslope winds is much poorer than the quality of the forecast of winds over flat land and winds blowing along a mountain.  In the downslope case, it is up to ten times more likely to either miss a windstorm or to forecast a windstorm that does not occur, than if the winds are not downslope.

How to cite: Ólafsson, H.: The connection between quality of wind forecasts and the dynamics of the winds, EGU General Assembly 2022, Vienna, Austria, 23–27 May 2022, EGU22-11169, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu22-11169, 2022.

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